ShockAtlas

ShockAtlas

An open atlas of economic exposure to climate and geopolitical shocks. Website: https://shockatlas.com · MCP server: https://shockatlas.com/api/mcp · Not investment advice.

ShockAtlas is a project of H2CO3. This repository documents what ShockAtlas publishes, how it is produced and how to query it. The site's source code is not published here.

What one signal contains

Each signal documents one shock in one place, for example the Rhine at Kaub falling below the level at which tankers can load, or a cancelled anchovy season in Peru.

• Three public data series: one physical (a river gauge, a rainfall total, an ENSO index), one economic (a price, a freight quote), one flow (tonnes shipped, port calls, transits).
• The mechanism: a causal chain from the physical event to the economic consequence. Each link is typed (physical, logistical, economic, behavioural), carries a lag in days, and has a status from the data: observed, consistent, untested or contradicted.
• The organisations on the chain, each with verbatim public evidence and a sector code (NACE or NAICS).
• Dated hypotheses with a threshold on a published series. From November 2026, each hypothesis is reviewed when its date passes and marked confirmed, invalidated or expired; a correction is published as a dated update, and the original stays visible.
• A reasoning dossier (constants with source quotes, constraints, alternatives, conditional trajectories) reviewed by an independent counter-analyst. Disagreements are kept, not smoothed over.

Every figure on an edition is recomputed from the published observations when the site is built.

Classification

Signals are classified in a public tree: domain › sector › chain.

Domain	Sectors
Transport	inland waterways, maritime, rail, air, road
Energy	gas and LNG, oil products, nuclear, hydropower, wind, solar
Agriculture	cereals, tropical crops, farm inputs
Animal feed	fishmeal and fish oil, oilseed meals

A sector with no signal yet is shown as "not covered yet". A chain is added only when a real signal fills it. Signals also cross the tree through shared axes: mechanism, geography (ISO 3166), series family, publisher, organisation sector. The live tree is at https://shockatlas.com/atlas.

How it is produced

ShockAtlas is run by AI agents, with separate roles that do not see each other's reasoning:

1. Scout: picks a shock from the news or from a threshold crossed on a tracked series.
2. Data collector: fetches the series from their publishers and records licence, publication and retrieval dates. It writes a data reading before any analysis: if the data do not show the shock, the subject stops or is reframed.
3. Organisation mapper: finds the organisations on the chain, with verbatim public evidence.
4. Analyst: writes the causal chain, hypotheses and trajectories.
5. Counter-analyst: reviews the dossier from the files alone. The review is bounded to two rounds.
6. Editor and QA: write the edition and check it against the data and the publication rules.

Data rights are checked per series. A series whose licence does not allow redistribution keeps its provenance and its source link, but its observations are withheld for everyone.

Access

Free, no key

• Index: https://shockatlas.com/api/atlas
• One signal: https://shockatlas.com/api/atlas/<signal>
• A series, JSON or CSV, last 12 observations: /api/atlas/<signal>/series/<key>, /api/atlas/<signal>/csv/<key>
• Editions, dossiers and organisations as HTML pages, an RSS feed (/feed.xml) and llms.txt
• The free weekly newsletter: https://shockatlas.com/newsletters (double opt-in)

MCP server (streamable HTTP, stateless), listed in the official MCP registry as com.shockatlas/atlas.

claude mcp add --transport http shockatlas https://shockatlas.com/api/mcp

Tool	Returns
list_signals	published signals, filterable by domain and sector
get_signal	one signal: series, figures, hypotheses, organisations
get_edition	the edition text
get_dossier	the reasoning dossier (preview without a key)
get_series	one series (last 12 observations without a key)
get_organisation	one organisation, with its sector and public evidence
get_offers	what is free and what is paid
get_export	the full export of a signal (member key)
subscribe_newsletter	asks the free weekly for one consenting address (double opt-in); the only write

What is for sale

ShockAtlas Premium, 49 USD per month, the only paid offer:

• every published analysis, old and new, while the subscription is active;
• three files per analysis, and the full series and dossiers through the API and the MCP with a member key;
• when the subscription ends, access stops; files already downloaded remain the subscriber's.

Details and current limits: https://shockatlas.com/premium

Contact

[email protected] · [email protected]