Sports Probabilities MCP

Sports Probabilities MCP

An MCP server that gives AI assistants Monte Carlo probabilities for the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and 17 soccer leagues, plus a model-versus-market comparison against live Kalshi prices.

Ask in plain language from Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor and get a computed number back — not an estimate the model made up.

The server runs on Apify: https://apify.com/commodus67/sports-probabilities-mcp

This repository holds the documentation and the registry manifest (server.json). The implementation lives in the Actor above.

Coverage

Sport	Teams	Probabilities
NFL	All 32	Playoffs, division, wild card, No. 1 seed
MLB	All 30	Postseason, division, wild card, top seed
NHL	All 32	Playoffs, division, wild card, conference top seed, Presidents' Trophy
NBA	All 30	Playoffs, play-in, top six, division, best record, conference finals, conference title, championship
Soccer	17 leagues	Title, top four, continental qualification, playoff, relegation

Soccer leagues: Premier League, EFL Championship, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, Süper Lig, Belgian Pro League, Scottish Premiership, Brasileirão, Liga MX, Liga Profesional (Argentina), Primera A (Colombia), MLS, Austrian Bundesliga. Other ESPN soccer slugs are supported.

Tools

Tool	Purpose
get_team_probabilities	One team's full probability set, current record, projected finish and ranking
get_league_probabilities	A whole league ranked by probability rather than by points or record
compare_model_vs_market	Model against live Kalshi prices: edge, expected value after fees, fractional Kelly stake
run_scenario	A fresh simulation under custom model assumptions, with movement analysis
get_probability_history	How a team's probability moved across the season, from archived runs

Model vs market

compare_model_vs_market reads live Kalshi playoff contracts for all four North American leagues — KXNFLPLAYOFF, KXMLBPLAYOFFS, KXNHLPLAYOFF and KXNBAPLAYOFF — and returns the gap between model and market, the better side of each contract, expected value after the taker fee and a capped quarter-Kelly stake.

For the NHL and NBA, value calls and stakes stay off until teams have played ten games, as in the underlying Actors; edges are still reported in full. For soccer, or to compare against a bookmaker, pass your own prices in marketProbabilities.

Connect

Streamable HTTP transport, stateless. Endpoint:

https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp

Clients that support OAuth (Claude custom connectors, for example) sign in with an Apify account — no token to paste. Other clients send an Apify API token as a bearer token:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sports-probabilities": {
      "url": "https://commodus67--sports-probabilities-mcp.apify.actor/mcp",
      "headers": {
        "Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_APIFY_API_TOKEN"
      }
    }
  }
}

How it works

Each answer comes from one of five published Monte Carlo Actors — NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA and soccer — that take live standings and the remaining schedule, play out the rest of the season thousands of times, and count how often each outcome happens. The MCP server calls those Actors and caches the result — it does not reimplement the simulation, so an answer here never disagrees with the same query made directly against the API.

Every response carries the date and the source of the run it came from.

Pricing

Pay per event, billed through Apify. From $50.00 per 1,000 probability reads. Full pricing on the Actor page.

Note

This is statistics and simulation. It is not betting advice, and it does not produce picks.