Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets MCP Server

An MCP server for interacting with Manifold Markets, a prediction market platform. Provides 18 tools covering market discovery, trading (bets and limit orders), market management (creation, resolution, comments, liquidity), and portfolio analytics. Communicates over stdio and works with any MCP-compatible client such as Claude Desktop or Claude Code.

Getting Started

Requirements

• A Manifold Markets API key from your account settings

Configuration

Variable	Required	Description
MANIFOLD_API_KEY	Yes	Your Manifold Markets API key
MANIFOLD_API_URL	No	Custom API URL (default: https://api.manifold.markets)

Install from source

Requires Go 1.27.3+.

go install github.com/jbeshir/mcp-servers/manifold/cmd/manifold-mcp@latest

Pre-built binaries

Download from Releases.

Docker

docker build -t manifold-mcp ./manifold
docker run -e MANIFOLD_API_KEY=<your-key> manifold-mcp

Claude Desktop

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "manifold": {
      "command": "/path/to/manifold-mcp",
      "env": { "MANIFOLD_API_KEY": "<your-key>" }
    }
  }
}

Claude Code

claude mcp add manifold -- env MANIFOLD_API_KEY=<your-key> /path/to/manifold-mcp

Tools

Read operations

Tool	Description
search_markets	Search markets by keyword and filters
get_market	Get full market details including answers and description
get_user	Get a user's profile by username
get_me	Get the authenticated user's profile
list_bets	List bets with optional filters
get_comments	Get comments on markets
get_positions	Get user positions for a specific market

Trading

Tool	Description
place_bet	Place a bet or limit order (supports dryRun)
sell_shares	Sell shares in a market
cancel_bet	Cancel a pending limit order

Market management

Tool	Description
create_market	Create a new market (binary, multiple choice, or numeric)
resolve_market	Resolve a market you created
close_market	Close a market or change its closing time
add_comment	Comment on a market
add_liquidity	Add mana liquidity to a market
send_mana	Send mana to other users

Analytics

Tool	Description
get_baseline	Get deterministic baseline probability for a market at a past time (default: 24h)
get_portfolio_pnl	Get full portfolio P&L summary with 24h changes for all positions

Key Concepts

• Markets -- Questions that users trade on. Each market has a type (binary yes/no, multiple choice, pseudo-numeric, etc.), a probability or set of answer probabilities, and a closing time after which no new bets are accepted.
• Mana -- The platform currency used for betting and trading. Users receive mana through deposits, trading profits, and transfers from other users. Mana is also used to add liquidity to markets or to send to other users.
• Bets and shares -- Placing a bet on an outcome buys shares in that outcome. The price per share reflects the market's current probability. Shares can be sold back at any time before resolution.
• Limit orders -- Instead of buying at the current price, a limit order specifies a probability threshold. The order stays open until it fills, expires, or is cancelled. Use place_bet with a limitProb parameter to create one.
• Positions -- A user's current holdings in a market: which outcomes they hold shares in, how many, and their profit/loss.
• Resolution -- The market creator decides the outcome (YES, NO, MKT for partial, or CANCEL). For multiple choice markets, a specific answer ID is resolved. Resolution triggers payouts to shareholders.
• Liquidity -- Mana added to a market's pool to reduce slippage (the price impact of large bets). Higher liquidity means prices move less per bet.
• Market types -- BINARY (yes/no), MULTIPLE_CHOICE (several named answers), FREE_RESPONSE (open-ended answers), PSEUDO_NUMERIC (numeric range mapped to a probability), BOUNTY, POLL, and NUMBER.
• Dry runs -- The place_bet tool supports dryRun=true to simulate a bet without executing it, showing what the outcome and cost would be.

Architecture Overview

graph LR
    Client["MCP Client<br/>(Claude Desktop, Claude Code)"]
    Server["manifold-mcp<br/>MCP Server"]
    HTTP["HTTP Client"]
    API["Manifold Markets<br/>REST API"]

    Client -- "JSON-RPC over stdio" --> Server
    Server --> HTTP
    HTTP -- "HTTPS + API key auth" --> API

The server has three internal layers:

• cmd/manifold-mcp -- Entry point. Reads configuration from environment variables, creates the HTTP client and MCP server, and starts the stdio transport.
• internal/server -- Registers all 18 MCP tools, routes incoming requests to handlers, and formats responses. Tool definitions are split across tools.go (read operations), tools_trading.go (trading), and tools_manage.go (market management).
• internal/client -- REST client for the Manifold Markets API. Handles authentication (API key in the Authorization header), JSON serialization, and error handling.

Data Flow

A typical trading workflow: search for a market, inspect it, simulate a bet, then execute.

sequenceDiagram
    participant C as MCP Client
    participant S as manifold-mcp
    participant A as Manifold API

    C->>S: search_markets(term: "AI")
    S->>A: GET /v0/search-markets?term=AI
    A-->>S: Market list
    S-->>C: Formatted results

    C->>S: get_market(marketId: "abc123")
    S->>A: GET /v0/market/abc123
    A-->>S: Full market details
    S-->>C: Question, probability, answers

    C->>S: place_bet(contractId, amount, outcome, dryRun: true)
    S->>A: POST /v0/bet (dryRun)
    A-->>S: Simulated bet result
    S-->>C: Expected shares, probability change

    C->>S: place_bet(contractId, amount, outcome)
    S->>A: POST /v0/bet
    A-->>S: Executed bet
    S-->>C: Bet confirmation