china-idea-generation

china-idea-generation

Purpose

Systematically surface new A股投资机会 through quantitative screens, thematic analysis, and pattern recognition.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_market_overview()                    → Top gainers, losers, most active
get_quote(ticker)                        → Price, PE, PB, market cap
get_historical_data(ticker)              → Price trends, momentum
get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financial metrics
get_financials(ticker, "balance")        → Balance sheet health
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")      → Peer comparison

Secondary Screening Data

Data	Source	Use
龙虎榜 (Dragon-Tiger list)	东方财富	Unusual activity, institutional interest
北向资金 (Northbound flows)	沪深港通	Foreign investor sentiment
融资融券 (Margin trading)	交易所	Leverage and sentiment
股东人数变化	巨潮	Institutional accumulation/distribution
机构持仓	季报/F10	Fund ownership trends
大宗交易 (Block trades)	交易所	Smart money signals

Workflow

Step 1: Define Screen Criteria

Investment philosophy alignment:

• Value vs Growth vs GARP vs Momentum
• Market cap preference (large / mid / small)
• Sector focus or sector-agnostic
• Liquidity requirements (turnover threshold)
• Risk tolerance (volatility, leverage, earnings stability)

Screen parameters (A-share specific):

Parameter	Typical Range	Notes
PE (TTM)	5-50x	Avoid negative PE
PB	0.5-5x	<1x may indicate distress
PS	0.5-5x	For high-growth unprofitable
Market cap	>50亿	Liquidity threshold
Daily turnover	>5000万	Tradability
ROE	>10%	Quality filter
Debt/Equity	<100%	Financial health
Revenue growth	>10%	Growth filter
EPS growth	>15%	Earnings momentum

Step 2: Quantitative Screens

Screen 1: Deep Value (深度价值)

Filters:
- PE (TTM) < 15x AND PB < 1.5x
- ROE > 10% (past 3 years average)
- Debt/Equity < 80%
- Revenue growth > 0% (not declining)
- Market cap > 30亿

Output: Value candidates with potential mispricing

Screen 2: Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP)

Filters:
- PEG < 1.0 (PE / growth rate)
- Revenue growth > 20%
- Gross margin > 30%
- ROE > 15%
- Market cap > 100亿

Output: Quality growth at reasonable multiples

Screen 3: Momentum (趋势跟踪)

Filters:
- Price above 20-day MA AND 60-day MA
- Price within 10% of 52-week high
- Volume above 20-day average
- RSI between 40-70 (not overbought)
- Upward earnings revision

Output: Momentum names in uptrends

Screen 4: Turnaround (困境反转)

Filters:
- Recent loss or margin compression
- New management / strategy announced
- Order book recovering
- Debt restructuring completed
- Insiders buying

Output: Potential turnaround candidates

Screen 5: Dividend Yield (高股息)

Filters:
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Payout ratio < 60%
- FCF positive and stable
- Debt/Equity < 100%
- Stable earnings history

Output: High-quality income names

Screen 6: Special Situations (事件驱动)

Filters:
- Lock-up expiry within 3 months (限售解禁)
- M&A announcement pending
- Regulatory catalyst (集采结果, etc.)
- Index inclusion/exclusion
- STAR/ChiNext eligibility

Output: Event-driven opportunities

Step 3: Thematic Research

Identify emerging themes:

Theme Type	Examples (A-share)	Data Sources
Policy-driven	国产替代, 新基建, 双碳	政策文件, 部委公告
Technology	AI应用, 自动驾驶, 机器人	技术进展, 订单公告
Demographics	老龄化, 少子化	人口数据, 消费数据
Consumption	消费升级, 国货崛起	零售数据, 品牌调研
Industrial	高端制造, 专精特新	行业数据, 政策

Thematic screening approach:

1. Define theme and investable universe
2. Map A-share companies to theme
3. Rank by exposure and quality
4. Identify pure-plays vs beneficiaries

Step 4: Technical Analysis

A-share technical considerations:

Indicator	Use
均线 (Moving averages)	Trend direction (5/10/20/60/120 day)
MACD	Momentum and trend changes
RSI	Overbought/oversold
KDJ	Short-term momentum
成交量 (Volume)	Confirmation of moves
龙虎榜	Institutional activity
北向资金	Foreign flows

Chart patterns to watch:

• 突破 (breakout) — above resistance
• 回踩 (pullback to support) — entry opportunity
• 双底/头肩 (double bottom/head & shoulders) — reversal signals
• 量价背离 (volume-price divergence) — trend exhaustion

Step 5: Fundamental Deep Dive

For each candidate:

1. Business model review: How does company make money?
2. Financial health: Balance sheet, cash flow, earnings quality
3. Competitive position: Market share, moat, pricing power
4. Management quality: Track record, capital allocation
5. Valuation: vs peers, vs history, vs international peers
6. Catalyst: What could re-rate the stock?

Red flag checklist:

• 商誉占比过高 (>30% of equity)
• 应收账款增速 > 收入增速
• 经营现金流持续为负
• 大股东质押比例过高 (>50%)
• 审计意见非标准无保留
• 频繁变更会计师事务所
• 关联交易占比高

Step 6: Build the Ideas List

Standard format:

Rank	Ticker	Company	Sector	Idea Type	Thesis	Catalyst	Risk	Conviction
{{RANK}}	{{TICKER}}	{{COMPANY_NAME}}	{{SECTOR}}	{{DIRECTION}}	{{THESIS}}	{{CATALYST}}	{{RISK}}	{{CONVICTION}}
Example	600519	贵州茅台	白酒	Long	批价稳+动销旺+分红高	Q1业绩超预期	批价下行	High
2	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...

Conviction levels:

• High: Strong thesis, clear catalyst, limited downside
• Medium: Good thesis, catalyst timeline uncertain
• Low: Exploratory, needs more research

Step 7: Monitor & Update

Ongoing tracking:

• Weekly price and news updates
• Catalyst tracking (china-catalyst-calendar)
• Thesis validation / invalidation
• Position sizing recommendations

Update triggers:

• Earnings results
• Material news (M&A, guidance, regulation)
• Price moves >15% in a week
• Thesis breaking or confirming

China-Specific Screening Considerations

Market Structure

Feature	Screening Implication
涨跌停限制	Momentum may be interrupted
散户占比高	Sentiment-driven overreactions common
政策敏感	Regulatory risk premium in certain sectors
北向资金	Track foreign flows for large-caps
龙虎榜	Unusual activity signals
停牌 (Trading halt)	Due diligence risk for suspended names

Common A-share Investment Styles

Style	Description	Key Metrics
价值投资	Deep value, dividend, asset-based	PB, dividend yield, 破净
成长投资	High growth, innovation	Revenue growth, R&D intensity
主题投资	Policy/trend themes	Catalyst proximity, theme purity
技术分析	Chart-based trading	均线, MACD, 量价
量化策略	Systematic, factor-based	Multi-factor models
打新	IPO subscription	中签率, 涨幅预期

Sector-Specific Screening

Sector	Screening Focus
白酒	批价趋势, 渠道库存, 回款, 品牌力
半导体	产能利用率, 国产替代进度, 技术迭代
新能源	产能过剩/出清, 技术路线, 补贴退坡影响
医药	创新药管线, 集采中标, 国际化
银行	NIM趋势, 不良率, 拨备, 估值 (破净)
房地产	销售额, 融资能力, 土储质量
消费	动销, 库存, 消费升级/降级趋势

Quality Checks

Before delivering ideas list:

• Screen criteria documented and reproducible
• Each candidate has fundamental backing
• Catalysts identified for each idea
• Risk factors clearly stated
• Conviction levels assigned
• Liquidity verified (tradable)
• Regulatory/compliance review passed

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only