china-roll-forward

china-roll-forward

Purpose

Roll forward A股财务模型 — update financial models for new reporting periods.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income")     → Latest actuals
get_financials(ticker, "balance")    → Latest BS
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow")   → Latest CF

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮 — latest filings
• 业绩预告 — early guidance
• 券商研报 — updated estimates

Workflow

Step 1: Identify New Period

Period identification:

Period Type	Frequency	Typical Timing
一季报 (Q1)	Quarterly	April 30 deadline
中报 (H1)	Semi-annual	August 31 deadline
三季报 (Q3)	Quarterly	October 31 deadline
年报 (Annual)	Annual	April 30 deadline

Calendar:

Q1: 1月1日 - 3月31日 → 披露截止 4月30日
H1: 1月1日 - 6月30日 → 披露截止 8月31日
Q3: 1月1日 - 9月30日 → 披露截止 10月31日
FY: 1月1日 - 12月31日 → 披露截止 次年4月30日

Step 2: Pull Latest Actuals

Data to pull:

Statement	Key Line Items
利润表	Revenue, gross profit, operating profit, net income
资产负债表	Cash, AR, inventory, PPE, debt, equity
现金流量表	OCF, investing CF, financing CF
附注	Segment data, related party, provisions

Step 3: Update Model Structure

Model update checklist:

Section	Action
Historicals	Replace with latest actuals
QTD data	Add new period actuals
YTD data	Update year-to-date
LTM data	Recalculate LTM
Growth rates	Recalculate YoY/QoQ
Ratios	Recalculate all ratios
Graphs	Update charts

Step 4: Validate Actuals

Actuals validation:

Check	Method
报表平衡	Assets = Liabilities + Equity
勾稽关系	CF = ΔCash
季度加总	Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 = Annual
同比计算	(Current - Prior) / Prior
环比率	(Current - Qprior) / Qprior

Common CAS adjustments:

• 增值税处理 (Revenue net of VAT)
• 政府补助分类 (Operating vs non-operating)
• 研发费用 (Separate from G&A)
• 信用减值损失 (CAS 22 expected credit loss)

Step 5: Update Forecasts

Forecast update logic:

Scenario	Action
In-line	No change to full-year forecast
Beat	Assess if full-year guidance should be raised
Miss	Assess if full-year guidance should be lowered
Guidance change	Update model for management guidance

Forecast roll-forward:

Period	Prior	Actual	New Forecast	Change
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Full year

Step 6: Update Valuation

Valuation update:

Input	Prior	Current	Change
Current price
Shares outstanding
Market cap
P/E (NTM)
P/B
EV/EBITDA
Target price
Upside/downside

Step 7: Update Narrative

Narrative updates:

Section	Update
Investment thesis	Review and update
Key drivers	Reflect latest results
Catalysts	Update timeline
Risks	Review and update
Target price	Update with new base

Step 8: Quality Checks

Roll-forward QC:

Check	Pass Criteria
All actuals pulled	All periods updated
Sum checks pass	Quarterly = Annual
Ratios recalculated	All formulas updated
Graphs updated	All charts reflect new data
Valuation current	Target price updated
No hardcodes	All cells formula-driven
CAS compliant	Chinese conventions applied

China-Specific Roll-Forward Considerations

Reporting Calendar

Filing	Deadline	Typical Release
业绩预告 (optional)	Before filing	10-15 days before
一季报	April 30	April
中报	August 31	August
三季报	October 31	October
年报	April 30	Late March-April

Common Update Triggers

Trigger	Action
Scheduled earnings	Full model update
业绩预告	Preliminary forecast update
Guidance change	Update full-year forecast
M&A announcement	Model for transaction impact
Policy change	Sector/company impact
Analyst day	Update long-term assumptions

Quality Checks

Before completing:

• Latest actuals pulled and entered
• All historical periods updated
• Forecasts rolled forward
• Valuation updated
• Sum checks pass
• No hardcodes introduced
• Documentation updated

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only, wind-only (Wind only), wind-fallback (Wind first, fallback to iFind → AkShare): Skip iFind, use AkShare only