china-thesis-tracker

china-thesis-tracker

Purpose

Track and maintain A股投资逻辑/thesis for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_quote(ticker)                        → Current price, valuation
get_historical_data(ticker)             → Price trajectory
get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financial performance
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → News affecting thesis
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")      → Peer context

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
• 业绩说明会 — management commentary
• 券商研报 — analyst updates
• Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data

Workflow

Step 1: Define / Load Thesis

Thesis statement template:

公司：[Company]（[Ticker]）
行业：[Industry]
方向：[Long / Short / Watch]

核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]

目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
时间 horizon：[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
置信度：[High / Medium / Low]

Thesis components:

Component	Description	Example
核心逻辑 (Core thesis)	Why will the stock move?	批价上行驱动盈利超预期
关键假设 (Key assumptions)	What must be true?	批价 >1000元, 动销增速 >15%
催化剂 (Catalysts)	What triggers re-rating?	Q1业绩, 批价数据, 政策变化
风险因素 (Risks)	What could break the thesis?	批价下行, 竞品放量, 政策风险
目标价 (Target)	Fair value estimate	¥2000 (基于25x PE)
止损位 (Stop loss)	Downside risk limit	¥1500 (对应20x PE)

Step 2: Track Key Data Points

Company-specific KPIs:

KPI	Frequency	Source	Trend
e.g., 批价	Weekly	渠道调研, 新闻	↑ / → / ↓
e.g., 动销增速	Monthly	经销商反馈	↑ / → / ↓
e.g., 产能利用率	Quarterly	年报/中报	↑ / → / ↓

Financial metrics to track:

Metric	Last Reported	Trend	Thesis Impact
Revenue growth
Gross margin
Net margin
ROE
Net debt/EBITDA

Market metrics:

Metric	Current	52W High	52W Low	Thesis Relevance
Stock price
Market cap
PE (TTM)
PB
YTD return

Step 3: Monitor Catalysts

Catalyst checklist:

Catalyst	Expected Date	Status	Outcome	Thesis Impact
Q1 季报	Apr 25	Pending
批价数据	Weekly	Ongoing	稳定在980元	Positive
股东大会	May 15	Scheduled

Catalyst outcome assessment:

• Confirming: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
• Neutral: Result as expected → maintain position
• Breaking: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position

Step 4: Thesis Validity Check

Regular review questions:

1. Has the thesis changed?

   • Core drivers still intact?
   • New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?

2. Are assumptions still valid?

   • Key assumptions: still on track?
   • Any material change to underlying business?

3. Is the timing right?

   • Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
   • Market pricing in the thesis?

4. Is the risk/reward still favorable?

   • Upside/downside ratio updated?
   • Entry price still reasonable?

5. Should thesis be adjusted?

   • Target price update
   • Risk factors added/removed
   • Time horizon extended/contracted

Step 5: Thesis Status

Status categories:

Status	Definition	Action
Intact (逻辑 intact)	All assumptions hold, catalysts on track	Maintain / add on weakness
Under pressure (承压)	Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken	Monitor closely, define exit criteria
Broken (逻辑破)	Core thesis invalidated	Exit position, document lessons
Evolving (演进中)	Thesis needs update based on new info	Update thesis statement, re-evaluate

Step 6: Update Documentation

Thesis update log:

[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]

一、当前状态：[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]

二、本期间重要变化：
   - [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
   - [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]

三、数据追踪：
   [Key metrics updated]

四、催化剂进展：
   [Catalyst status update]

五、决策：
   - [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
   - [Rationale]

六、后续关注：
   - [Next check-in date]
   - [Key metrics to watch]

Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review

Aggregate view:

Position	Thesis Status	Conviction	Days Held	P&L	Next Catalyst	Action

Portfolio-level insights:

• Which theses are working? Common factors?
• Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
• Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
• Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)

China-Specific Thesis Considerations

Common A-share Thesis Types

Thesis Type	Description	Key Metrics
批价上行	Liquor sector price appreciation	批价, 库存, 动销
国产替代	Import substitution	市场份额, 认证进展
产能出清	Industry capacity rationalization	产能利用率, 价格
政策利好	Policy tailwind	政策落地, 补贴
困境反转	Distressed turnaround	债务重组, 新管理层
行业整合	M&A consolidation	集中度, 并购活动
技术突破	Technology breakthrough	专利, 订单
消费升级	Premiumization	ASP, 产品结构

A-share Market Risks to Track

Risk Type	Indicator	Mitigation
政策风险 (Policy)	Regulatory announcements	Diversify across sectors
系统性风险 (Systemic)	上证指数 drawdown	Hedging, cash position
流动性风险 (Liquidity)	Margin balances, turnover	Avoid illiquid names
解禁风险 (Lock-up)	Unlocking calendar	Avoid near-term unlocks
质押风险 (Pledging)	Shareholder pledge ratio	Check F10 data
商誉风险 (Goodwill)	Goodwill/equity ratio	Flag high goodwill names

Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle

Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision

Quality Checks

Before delivering thesis update:

• Thesis statement clear and specific
• Key assumptions listed and tracked
• Catalysts documented with dates
• Financial metrics current
• Price trajectory analyzed
• Risk factors updated
• Action recommendation clear
• Next review date set

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only