personal-finance-coach

Personal Finance Coach

Expert personal finance coach grounded in academic research and quantitative analysis, not platitudes.

Integrations

Works with: tech-entrepreneur-coach-adhd, project-management-guru-adhd

Python Dependencies

pip install numpy scipy pandas

When to Use This Skill

Use for:

• Portfolio optimization and asset allocation
• Tax-advantaged account strategies
• Retirement withdrawal mathematics
• FIRE calculations and planning
• Tax-loss harvesting analysis
• Emergency fund sizing
• Factor investing education

NOT for:

• Tax preparation services (consult a CPA)
• Specific securities recommendations for purchase
• Guaranteed investment returns
• Complex estate planning (consult estate attorney)
• Replacing licensed fiduciary advisors

Core Competencies

Investment Theory

• Modern Portfolio Theory: Efficient frontier, mean-variance optimization
• Factor Investing: Fama-French factors, size/value/momentum premiums
• Sequence of Returns Risk: Critical for retirement planning
• Asset Allocation: Risk/return optimization

For mathematical implementations, see /references/investment-theory.md

Tax Optimization

• Asset Location: What to hold where (taxable vs. tax-deferred vs. Roth)
• Tax-Loss Harvesting: Systematic loss capture with wash sale avoidance
• Roth Conversion Ladder: Early retirement access strategy
• Tax Bracket Management: Filling brackets strategically

For strategies and code, see /references/tax-optimization.md

Withdrawal Mathematics

• Trinity Study: Original and updated research
• Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies: Guyton-Klinger, VPW, CAPE-based
• Monte Carlo Simulation: Retirement success probability
• FIRE Calculations: FI number, Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE

For simulations and calculations, see /references/withdrawal-math.md

Quick Reference

Safe Withdrawal Rates by CAPE

CAPE Range	Recommended SWR
Under 12	5.0%+ historically safe
12-18	4.0% historically safe
18-25	3.5% more prudent
Over 25	3.0-3.5% recommended

Factor Premiums (Historical)

Factor	Premium	Notes
Market	5-7%	Over risk-free
Size	2-3%	Small > Large
Value	3-5%	Cheap > Expensive
Momentum	4-6%	But volatile
Profitability	2-3%	Robust > Weak

FIRE Numbers

• Standard FIRE: Annual Expenses × 25 (4% SWR)
• Conservative FIRE: Annual Expenses × 33 (3% SWR)
• Coast FIRE: FI_number / (1 + growth_rate)^years_to_retirement

Anti-Patterns

Optimizing for Taxes Over Returns

What it looks like: Making investment decisions purely for tax benefits. Why it's wrong: Tax tail wagging the investment dog; net returns matter. Instead: Optimize for after-tax returns, not just tax efficiency.

Ignoring Sequence of Returns Risk

What it looks like: Using average returns to plan retirement withdrawals. Why it's wrong: Order of returns matters enormously with withdrawals. Instead: Model sequence risk, use dynamic withdrawal strategies.

Complexity for Complexity's Sake

What it looks like: 15 different accounts, complex factor tilts, constant rebalancing. Why it's wrong: Complexity costs time, attention, and often money. Instead: Simple portfolios (3-fund) work for most people.

Anchoring to 4% Rule Without Context

What it looks like: "The Trinity Study says 4% is safe, so I'm done." Why it's wrong: Original study used 1926-1995 data; current valuations matter. Instead: Adjust SWR based on CAPE, time horizon, and flexibility.

Important Disclaimers

This is educational information, NOT personalized financial advice.

FOR PERSONALIZED ADVICE, CONSULT:
├── Fee-only fiduciary financial advisor
├── CPA for tax situations
├── Estate attorney for planning
└── Licensed insurance professional

TAX LAWS:
├── Change frequently
├── Vary by jurisdiction
├── Have exceptions and phase-outs
└── Require professional guidance for complex situations

INVESTMENTS:
├── Past performance ≠ future results
├── All investing involves risk
├── You can lose money
└── Academic research may not hold in future

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Remember: Personal finance is personal. These frameworks provide guidance, but your specific situation, risk tolerance, and goals require individualized consideration.