predict-assignment

Predict Assignment

Overview

This skill predicts the most appropriate assignment group and category for incoming incidents by analyzing historical resolution patterns, keyword frequency, and group performance metrics. It enables zero-touch routing for the service desk.

• Analyze incoming incident short descriptions and descriptions for keyword signals
• Query historical incidents with similar text to determine which groups resolved them
• Rank candidate assignment groups by resolution success rate and average resolution time
• Predict incident category and subcategory based on content analysis
• Apply predicted assignment with confidence scoring and fallback routing
• Track prediction accuracy over time and refine routing rules

When to use: When new incidents arrive unassigned or miscategorized, and you want to reduce manual triage time by automatically predicting the correct assignment group and category.

Prerequisites

• Roles: itil, incident_manager, or assignment_rule_admin
• Plugins: com.snc.incident (Incident Management)
• Access: Read/write on incident, read on sys_user_group, sys_choice, sn_agent_workspace, sys_cs_channel
• Knowledge: Familiarity with your organization's support group structure and category taxonomy
• Data: At least 3-6 months of resolved incident data for reliable predictions

Procedure

Step 1: Retrieve the Incoming Incident

Fetch the new or unassigned incident that needs routing.

Using MCP (Claude Code/Desktop):

Tool: SN-Query-Table
Parameters:
  table_name: incident
  query: active=true^state=1^assignment_groupISEMPTY
  fields: sys_id,number,short_description,description,category,subcategory,contact_type,caller_id,cmdb_ci,priority
  limit: 25

Using REST API:

GET /api/now/table/incident?sysparm_query=active=true^state=1^assignment_groupISEMPTY&sysparm_fields=sys_id,number,short_description,description,category,subcategory,contact_type,caller_id,cmdb_ci,priority&sysparm_limit=25

Step 2: Extract Keywords and Signals

Parse the incident short description and description to extract routing signals:

Signal Type	Examples	Weight
Technology keywords	VPN, SAP, Exchange, Oracle, AWS	0.35
Symptom keywords	crash, slow, error, timeout, outage	0.20
Infrastructure terms	server, database, network, firewall, load balancer	0.25
Business context	payroll, invoice, order, shipping, compliance	0.20

Build a signal vector from the incident text for matching against historical data.

Step 3: Query Historical Incidents for Pattern Matching

Find resolved incidents with similar descriptions to determine routing patterns.

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Query-Table
Parameters:
  table_name: incident
  query: state=6^resolved_atONLast 180 days@javascript:gs.daysAgoStart(180)@javascript:gs.daysAgoEnd(0)^short_descriptionLIKE[primary_keyword]^assignment_groupISNOTEMPTY
  fields: sys_id,number,short_description,category,subcategory,assignment_group,resolved_by,resolve_time
  limit: 50

Using REST API:

GET /api/now/table/incident?sysparm_query=state=6^resolved_atONLast 180 days@javascript:gs.daysAgoStart(180)@javascript:gs.daysAgoEnd(0)^short_descriptionLIKE[primary_keyword]^assignment_groupISNOTEMPTY&sysparm_fields=sys_id,number,short_description,category,subcategory,assignment_group,resolved_by,resolve_time&sysparm_limit=50

Step 4: Rank Candidate Assignment Groups

Aggregate historical results to rank groups by suitability:

Scoring formula:

group_score = (frequency * 0.40) + (success_rate * 0.30) + (speed_score * 0.30)

Where:

• frequency: How often this group resolved similar incidents (normalized 0-1)
• success_rate: Percentage of incidents resolved without reassignment (0-1)
• speed_score: Inverse of average resolution time relative to SLA (0-1)

Rank	Assignment Group	Frequency	Success Rate	Avg Resolve Time	Score
1	Network Operations	34/50	94%	2.1 hours	0.91
2	Infrastructure Team	10/50	88%	3.4 hours	0.72
3	Service Desk L2	6/50	70%	8.2 hours	0.48

Step 5: Predict Category and Subcategory

Query the valid category/subcategory combinations and match based on content:

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Query-Table
Parameters:
  table_name: sys_choice
  query: name=incident^element=category^inactive=false
  fields: sys_id,label,value
  limit: 100

Using REST API:

GET /api/now/table/sys_choice?sysparm_query=name=incident^element=category^inactive=false&sysparm_fields=sys_id,label,value&sysparm_limit=100

Cross-reference the extracted keywords with the category most frequently associated with similar historical incidents.

Step 6: Validate Against Agent Workspace Context

Check if the incident originated from Agent Workspace or a conversational channel for additional context:

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Query-Table
Parameters:
  table_name: sys_cs_channel
  query: source_record=[incident_sys_id]
  fields: sys_id,channel_type,conversation,state
  limit: 5

Using REST API:

GET /api/now/table/sys_cs_channel?sysparm_query=source_record=[incident_sys_id]&sysparm_fields=sys_id,channel_type,conversation,state&sysparm_limit=5

Step 7: Apply Predicted Assignment

Apply the top-ranked assignment group and predicted category to the incident:

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Update-Record
Parameters:
  table_name: incident
  sys_id: [incident_sys_id]
  data:
    assignment_group: [predicted_group_sys_id]
    category: network
    subcategory: vpn
    state: 2

Using REST API:

PATCH /api/now/table/incident/{sys_id}
Content-Type: application/json

{
  "assignment_group": "[predicted_group_sys_id]",
  "category": "network",
  "subcategory": "vpn",
  "state": "2"
}

Step 8: Document Prediction Rationale

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Add-Work-Notes
Parameters:
  sys_id: [incident_sys_id]
  work_notes: |
    === PREDICTIVE ASSIGNMENT ANALYSIS ===
    Model: Keyword-Historical Pattern v1.0

    Keywords Detected: "VPN", "disconnect", "remote"
    Signal Category: Network / VPN

    Assignment Group Predictions:
    1. Network Operations (score: 0.91, confidence: HIGH)
       - 34/50 similar incidents resolved by this group
       - 94% first-touch resolution rate
       - Avg resolution: 2.1 hours
    2. Infrastructure Team (score: 0.72, confidence: MEDIUM)
    3. Service Desk L2 (score: 0.48, confidence: LOW)

    Category Prediction: Network > VPN
    Based on: 68% of similar incidents categorized as Network/VPN

    Action Taken: Assigned to Network Operations (highest score)
    Fallback: Infrastructure Team if reassigned within 30 minutes

Step 9: Track Prediction Accuracy

Monitor reassignment rates to measure prediction quality:

Using MCP:

Tool: SN-Query-Table
Parameters:
  table_name: incident
  query: work_notesLIKEPREDICTIVE ASSIGNMENT^sys_updated_onONLast 30 days@javascript:gs.daysAgoStart(30)@javascript:gs.daysAgoEnd(0)
  fields: sys_id,number,assignment_group,reassignment_count,state
  limit: 200

Key metrics to track:

• First-touch accuracy: Percentage of predictions not reassigned
• Category accuracy: Percentage of predicted categories not changed
• Routing time saved: Time from creation to assignment vs. manual baseline
• Reassignment rate: How often predicted assignments are overridden

Tool Usage

Tool	Purpose	When to Use
SN-Natural-Language-Search	Find unassigned incidents in natural language	Initial candidate discovery
SN-Query-Table	Query historical data, categories, groups	Pattern analysis and validation
SN-Update-Record	Apply predicted assignment and category	Routing the incident
SN-Add-Work-Notes	Document prediction rationale	Audit trail and transparency
SN-Get-Table-Schema	Discover incident and group fields	Setup and configuration

Best Practices

1. Require minimum data -- do not predict if short_description is fewer than 3 words
2. Set confidence thresholds -- only auto-assign when score >= 0.75; otherwise flag for review
3. Never override manual assignments -- if a human already assigned the group, do not overwrite
4. Respect priority escalation -- P1 incidents should always involve human confirmation
5. Retrain regularly -- recalculate keyword-group associations monthly as teams change
6. Handle new categories gracefully -- default to Service Desk L2 when no historical match
7. Consider CI relationships -- if cmdb_ci is populated, use its support group as a strong signal
8. Monitor drift -- alert when prediction accuracy drops below 80%

Troubleshooting

"Prediction always routes to the same group"

Cause: One group historically resolves the majority of incidents, skewing frequency scores Solution: Apply frequency dampening or normalize per-category instead of globally.

"Category prediction does not match subcategory"

Cause: Category and subcategory have a parent-child relationship not enforced in prediction Solution: Query sys_choice with dependent_value to ensure valid combinations.

"Low confidence on most predictions"

Cause: Insufficient historical data or descriptions too vague Solution: Increase the historical data window, or combine with CI-based routing for stronger signals.

"Agent Workspace context not found"

Cause: Incident was not created via Agent Workspace or Virtual Agent Solution: This is expected for portal or email-created incidents. Fall back to text-only analysis.

Examples

Example 1: VPN Connectivity Incident

Input: INC0078901 - "VPN keeps dropping when connected to corporate network"

Analysis:

• Keywords: "VPN", "dropping", "connected", "corporate network"
• Historical match: 42 similar incidents, 36 resolved by Network Operations
• Category prediction: Network > VPN (86% confidence)
• Top group: Network Operations (score: 0.93)

Action: Assign to Network Operations, category Network/VPN.

Example 2: SAP Authorization Error

Input: INC0078902 - "SAP transaction SU01 returning authorization failure for user JSMITH"

Analysis:

• Keywords: "SAP", "transaction", "SU01", "authorization"
• Historical match: 28 similar incidents, 24 resolved by SAP Basis Team
• Category prediction: Software > ERP (91% confidence)
• Top group: SAP Basis Team (score: 0.95)

Action: Assign to SAP Basis Team, category Software/ERP.

Example 3: Ambiguous Request

Input: INC0078903 - "Something is not working"

Analysis:

• Keywords: none specific detected
• Historical match: insufficient signal
• Confidence: 0.22 (below threshold)

Action: Flag for manual triage. Add work note: "Insufficient detail for predictive assignment. Recommend contacting caller for clarification."

Related Skills

• itsm/incident-triage - Manual triage and prioritization
• itsm/case-auto-resolve - Auto-resolve after assignment
• itsm/incident-lifecycle - Full incident management workflow
• itsm/suggested-steps - Generate resolution steps for assigned incidents
• itsm/incident-sentiment - Analyze sentiment to prioritize routing