prediction-markets-research

Prediction markets research

Pull live and historical odds, order books, and forecast questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus as normalized JSON — no scraping market-maker sites or parsing raw order-book blobs.

When to use this skill

• "What does the market think will happen with ?" / "current odds for …"
• "Show me the order book / spread / price history for this market."
• "What are the top trending prediction markets right now?"
• "What's the community forecast (Metaculus) for ?"
• Election, macro, sports, or crypto-outcome forecasting research.
• Public DraftKings Predictions categories, regional availability-map entries, or settlement-rule links.

Setup (one-time)

• Get a free Crawlora API key (2,000 credits/mo, no card) at https://crawlora.net.
• Set CRAWLORA_API_KEY in the environment before running the helper.
• The helper reads CRAWLORA_API_KEY from the environment and sends requests to https://api.crawlora.net/api/v1. Missing/invalid key → 401.

How it works

1. Polymarket — /polymarket/search or /polymarket/events to find an event; /polymarket/event/{slug} for detail (nested markets); /polymarket/market/{id} for one market; then token-level pricing via /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price|midpoint|orderbook|spread|price-history (or the batched POST /polymarket/tokens/prices etc. for up to 25 at once). /polymarket/leaderboard and /polymarket/dashboards/macro cover traders and macro events.
2. Kalshi — /kalshi/events / /kalshi/markets to browse; /kalshi/event/{event_ticker} or /kalshi/market/{ticker} for detail; /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history for candlesticks, /kalshi/market/{ticker}/orderbook for depth, /kalshi/trades for recent fills. /kalshi/historical/* covers settled (closed) markets.
3. Metaculus — /metaculus/questions to browse; /metaculus/question/{id} for detail; /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts for the current community aggregate, /forecast-history for how it moved over time.
4. DraftKings Predictions — /draftkings/predictions/categories and /draftkings/predictions/availability describe the public category menu and source-reported regional status map; /draftkings/predictions/rules lists public rulebook and settlement-source links. These endpoints do not contain quotes, user location, trade slips, or account data.

Full endpoint list, methods, and params: reference/endpoints.md.

Calling the API

# Polymarket:
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/search q="fed rate cut" | jq '.'
scripts/crawlora.sh /polymarket/event/will-the-fed-cut-rates | jq '.'

# Kalshi:
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/markets | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /kalshi/market/INXD-24DEC31-T5000/history | jq '.'

# Metaculus:
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/questions | jq '.data'
scripts/crawlora.sh /metaculus/question/12345/forecasts | jq '.'
# DraftKings Predictions (navigation and rules only):
scripts/crawlora.sh /draftkings/predictions/availability
scripts/crawlora.sh /draftkings/predictions/categories

Use scripts/crawlora.sh for all requests; it keeps the API key out of command-line arguments.

Endpoint reference

See reference/endpoints.md for every Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus endpoint this skill uses.

Examples

• Cross-platform odds check: /polymarket/search and /kalshi/markets for the same real-world event, compare implied probabilities.
• Market momentum: /kalshi/market/{ticker}/history or /polymarket/token/{token_id}/price-history plotted over time to see how sentiment shifted.
• Forecast vs. market: /metaculus/question/{id}/forecasts (community aggregate) alongside the matching Polymarket/Kalshi market price.

Notes & limits

• Credits / pay-on-success: billed only on 2xx; free tier 2,000 credits/mo. Key at https://crawlora.net.
• Public, credential-free data only — no trading, no order placement; read-only market data. This is not financial advice.
• DraftKings' regional map is a source snapshot, not a legal determination or proof of a user's eligibility. Its public routes here have no live market prices.
• Security: key lives in CRAWLORA_API_KEY only — never hardcode, query-param, or commit it.
• Batch endpoints (/polymarket/tokens/*) accept up to 25 ids per call — chunk larger lists.