About thesis-tracker
A skill for investors to define and maintain company investment theses. It records supporting pillars, invalidating risks, developments, conviction, and upcoming catalysts in a concise review format.
Key features
- 01Define long or short investment theses
- 02Log developments and thesis impact
- 03Track pillar status and conviction
- 04Maintain a catalyst calendar
- 05Prepare concise thesis reviews
Use cases
- 01Review a holding after an earnings release
- 02Track risks that could invalidate an investment view
- 03Prepare portfolio or risk committee discussions
Install
Copy the command and run it in a terminal.
$
npx skills add https:/After installing, type/thesis-trackerin Claude Code to confirm it loaded.
Details
From the project READMEThesis Tracker
Workflow
Step 1: Define or Load Thesis
If creating a new thesis:
- Company: Name and ticker
- Position: Long or Short
- Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
- Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments
- Key risks: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
- Catalysts: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
- Target price / valuation: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
- Stop-loss trigger: What would make you exit
If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.
Step 2: Update Log
For each new data point or development:
- Date: When this happened
- Data point: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
- Thesis impact: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
- Action: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
- Updated conviction: High / Medium / Low
Step 3: Thesis Scorecard
Maintain a running scorecard:
| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |
Step 4: Catalyst Calendar
Track upcoming catalysts:
| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
Step 5: Output
Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation
Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.
Important Notes
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions
Comments
Markdown supported