worldcup-predictor

世界杯预测机 / World Cup Predictor

Use this skill to run deterministic World Cup predictions from an offline audited snapshot. Users may call it 世界杯预测机 in Chinese prompts; the internal skill name remains worldcup-predictor. The bundled core/ is a portable snapshot of prediction-core v0.2.0; do not recreate probability formulas in prose or with an LLM.

Workflow

1. Obtain a structured audited snapshot. Do not scrape or invent missing official facts.
2. Read references/data-schema.md and validate source versions, one complete strength version, and completed match fields.
3. If official provenance is relevant, read references/official-data-sources.md; use its source index only to audit snapshot lineage, not as live prediction input.
4. Run the relevant CLI from the skill directory:

node scripts/predict-match.mjs --data <snapshot> --home FRA --away BRA
node scripts/simulate-tournament.mjs --data <snapshot> --simulations 10000 --seed 2026
node scripts/generate-lottery-slip.mjs --issue <issue> --strategy balanced --budget 288

5. Explain only the returned probabilities and audit metadata. State uncertainty and fallback status.
6. Keep 90minResult and advanceResult separate in every report.

Non-Negotiable Rules

• Use 90minResult only for 3/1/0 lists, group points, and 90-minute predictions.
• Use advanceResult only for knockout progression and champion paths.
• Preserve completed group scores and completed knockout advancing teams.
• Apply host advantage only when venueCountryCode matches the team's country.
• Treat officialFacts, weather, and news as audit context only.
• Ignore llm_extraction adjustments. Apply only manual_review or versioned deterministic_rule adjustments.
• Never claim guaranteed accuracy, returns, purchasing advice, or official endorsement.

Bundled Data

• assets/sample-data/worldcup-2026.json: compact synthetic audited smoke-test snapshot.
• assets/sample-data/synthetic-48-team.json: synthetic 48-team snapshot with 73 completed matches.
• assets/official-sources.json: lightweight official source registry metadata only.
• Samples are not official feeds and contain no licensed marks or crests. The source registry does not include official data, raw responses, media, or live feeds.

References

• Read references/data-schema.md before preparing or validating snapshots.
• Read references/official-data-sources.md before assessing official source provenance or deciding whether a source may affect predictions.
• Read references/model-methodology.md when explaining calculations and limitations.
• Read references/tournament-rules.md for completed-result continuation and 2026 paths.
• Read references/lottery-rules.md before producing a 3/1/0 reference list.

球队分档与主观资料库 (Team Database & Substantive Context)

When generating analysis and explanations in natural language, use the following stylistic and substantive guidelines to give the output a "professional pundit" feel. Never invent or hallucinate player injuries or historical data, but you may draw on this database:

• 🥇 夺冠热门档 (Title Favorites):
  • 阿根廷 (Argentina): Defending champions, led by Messi and a mature tactical system under Scaloni.
  • 西班牙 (Spain): Euro 2024 winners, young and dynamic (Yamal, Pedri, Williams).
  • 法国 (France): 2018 Winners, 2022 Runners-up, incredible depth with Mbappe leading.
  • 英格兰 (England): Euro 2024 runners-up, immense talent but historical psychological pressure.
  • 巴西 (Brazil): Five-time winners, resurgent under Ancelotti, led by Vinicius Jr.
• 🥈 一线强队档 (Tier 1 Contenders):
  • 德国 (Germany): Hosts of Euro 2024, strong attacking midfield (Wirtz, Musiala).
  • 葡萄牙 (Portugal): Deep squad with veteran leadership (Ronaldo, Bruno).
  • 荷兰 (Netherlands): Solid defense (Van Dijk) and structured play.
  • 乌拉圭 (Uruguay): High intensity under Bielsa (Valverde, Nunez).
  • 克罗地亚 (Croatia): "Tournament Kings" with aging core (Modric).
  • 摩洛哥 (Morocco): 2022 Semi-finalists, strongest African nation.
  • 日本 (Japan): Top Asian team, highly coordinated with European-based squad.
• 🏠 二线 / 东道主档 (Tier 2 / Hosts):
  • 美国 (USA) & 墨西哥 (Mexico) & 加拿大 (Canada): Hosts with home advantage but varying squad depths.
  • 瑞士 (Switzerland): Consistent performers.
• 🌱 中游 / 新军档 (Mid-table / Debutants):
  • Teams like Cape Verde, Curacao, Uzbekistan, etc. Focus on their resilience or specific tactical styles.

每日情报区 (Daily Brief)

情报日期：2026-06-18

• 赛事已于 6月11日 开打，首周呈现冷门频发、平局极多的特征。
• 佛得角 0-0 逼平西班牙，沙特 1-1 乌拉圭，摩洛哥 1-1 巴西，日本 2-2 荷兰，新西兰 2-2 伊朗。
• 请在解释胜平负概率时，如果遇到强弱悬殊对决但模型给出了较高的平局概率，请结合“近期强队状态起伏，弱队密集防守”或“本届赛事早期冷门多”的趋势进行解读。