yao-bayesian-skill

Yao Bayesian Skill

Use This Skill For

• structure a vague choice into hypothesis, time horizon, success metric, and actions
• set a prior, grade evidence, update posterior, compare action thresholds, and recommend next information
• start from incomplete input with a weak prior, then improve the judgment through multi-turn questioning
• export one synchronized Chinese-first markdown plus bilingual html report

Do Not Route Here

• Bayes theorem tutoring or homework-only calculations
• broad research or brainstorming with no explicit decision report
• final professional medical, legal, or investment advice

Default Workflow

1. Use references/intake-contract.md to convert the request into one structured decision brief.
2. If input is incomplete, read references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md; start with a weak prior and ask the minimum next questions.
3. Use references/evidence-prior-playbook.md to grade evidence and choose the lightest valid update path.
4. Run references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md; show only the 3-5 principles most relevant to this case.
5. Maintain the round log: user input, remaining gap, update path, probability change, and decision readiness.
6. Run scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py for canonical JSON or scripts/generate_report_bundle.py for markdown + html.
7. Finalize with references/decision-report-contract.md, references/report-export-pipeline.md, and references/sensitivity-and-safety.md.

Iteration And Implementation Constraints

When extending this skill: state assumptions before coding, keep the smallest valid workflow, touch only files required by the request, and define user-visible success checks before editing. Typical checks: incomplete input yields a weak prior plus follow-up questions; each round is logged; the report explains belief changes; HTML/Markdown still render the intended guidance.

Output Contract

• Produce a decision report, not a formula dump; mark numbers as observed, estimated, or assumed.
• Put the plain-language conclusion and action recommendation before technical sections.
• Include weak evidence, dependence risk, sensitivity, prior-hygiene checks, and high-risk disclaimers when relevant.
• For multi-turn use, log prior, posterior, readiness, gaps, and formula/update path for each round.
• Reports default to Simplified Chinese; HTML also supports Chinese/English switching, sticky navigation, collapsible advanced sections, and top-right Print / Save as PDF.
• Printing or saving HTML as PDF should expand folded sections first.

Reference Map

• references/intake-contract.md: request-to-brief conversion
• references/multi-turn-dialogue-loop.md: incomplete-input handling and iterative questioning
• references/evidence-prior-playbook.md: evidence tiers, priors, update-path selection
• references/prior-hygiene-checklist.md: default judgment priors for checking priors, evidence, and action intensity
• references/decision-report-contract.md: required report sections and schema alignment
• references/report-export-pipeline.md: automatic HTML/Markdown generation and bilingual HTML rules
• references/sensitivity-and-safety.md: sensitivity analysis and high-risk disclaimers
• scripts/bayesian_decision_report.py: canonical V0/V1 calculation
• scripts/generate_report_bundle.py: Chinese-first Markdown plus bilingual HTML