Election Odds Desk

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

Canonical home: predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp — docs, setup, the live wall and the per-tool track record. This repo is the bridge and the offline calculators; the server lives on the site.

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, Fed rate odds, Kalshi's 15-minute markets and perps (with liquidation estimates), live edge signals, and the in-season NFL model: power ratings, win probability, The Ladder, the weekly prop board and game/prop edges.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it — per tool, wins and losses both, including the engines that lose money. The live record: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

• Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm
• Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
• 45 tools — 38 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set. Every free tool answers in season, including the eight fantasy-draft tools, which now answer week-by-week market questions (the 2026 Senate map and per-race odds joined 2026-09-17; the Kalshi 15-minute board and the two perps tools joined 2026-09-26; the NHL board joined 2026-09-28; the graded track record, the Sleeper league view, start/sit and waiver targets joined 2026-10-11; the NBA prop price board joined 2026-10-11; the NFL game explainer, the NBA game-line board and NBA injury impact joined 2026-10-13; the NFL prop and ladder explainers joined 2026-10-14).
• Fantasy draft landing page: predictionmarketspicks.com/draft — the eight draft tools, connect instructions, and the model behind the board. During the season all eight answer week-by-week NFL market questions instead of draft questions.

See it work

• Gemini CLI: install in one command, ask which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open. (47s demo · setup)
• Kalshi vs Polymarket, in one question: ask where the two venues disagree, then whether they agree on the next Fed meeting. (50s demo · setup guide)
• Kalshi 15-minute gold & Bitcoin + the BTC perp: live boards and perp funding in one chat. (48s demo · commodity markets)
• Claude, ChatGPT & Cursor: paste one URL and ask. (40s demo · Cursor setup)
• Kalshi weather edges + Kelly sizing: forecast vs market, then the position size, in one chat. (46s demo · weather)

Connect

One click: Add to Cursor · Add to VS Code · Gemini CLI: gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
    }
  }
}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 45 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft server
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the NFL model, or anything that reads a market.

Other hosted surfaces (same registry, same tool objects, different selection — no separate install):

Server	Endpoint	Exposes
com.predictionmarketspicks/quant	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=npm	All 45 tools
com.predictionmarketspicks/fantasy-draft	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-draft/mcp?via=github	11 tools: the 8 draft tools (all answer in season with the week's market) plus the in-season league tools my_league, start_sit and waiver_targets
com.predictionmarketspicks/weather	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=github	The 7-tool weather loop: weather_board (every open Kalshi daily-high strike) + edge_alerts (weather feed) + the five calculators
com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=github	The 10-tool macro & commodities desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (gold / silver / oil / bitcoin), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse, base_rate_gap + three calculators
com.predictionmarketspicks/elections	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-elections/mcp?via=github	The election odds desk: senate_map, race_odds, best_price (every 2026 Senate, governor and House race on Kalshi), fed_rate_odds, market_pulse
com.predictionmarketspicks/crypto	https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-crypto/mcp?via=github	The crypto desk: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge (bitcoin) + three calculators

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). Deeper results on the list-shaped tools unlock instantly and free — no key to copy, nothing to install: unlock here.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

Tool	What it does
calculate_ev	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_size	Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_update	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probability	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
base_rate_gap	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
combo_edge	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free

Tool	What it does
fed_rate_odds	Live Kalshi-implied odds of a Fed rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, plus the next meeting and the current fed funds rate.
fifteen_min_board	Every Kalshi 15-minute series live — crypto, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, copper, currencies — with the open window's YES price, close time, settlement source, and how the last 96 windows settled.
perps_board	Every Kalshi perp — price, volume, open interest, max leverage, and what funding has cost a long since launch.
perp_liquidation	Where a leveraged Kalshi perp position liquidates (an estimate from Kalshi's published risk parameters), with fees and funding over the hold.
weather_board	Every open Kalshi daily-high temperature strike in 13 cities — YES price, settlement station, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it.

Politics — free

Tool	What it does
senate_map	Every 2026 Senate seat — holder, structure rating, forecaster ratings and the live Kalshi price, closest race first. Unpriced seats return null, never an estimate.
race_odds	Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race (by state or district, e.g. "TX-34") — every leg's price, volume and link, plus the forecaster ratings.
best_price	Where the same contract is cheapest after fees — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs Novig — for a sports game, a 2026 race or the next Fed meeting. Ranked by price only.

Markets — free, depth-capped

Tool	What it does
find_arbitrage	Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
market_pulse	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL in-season — free

Tool	What it does
nfl_power_ratings	PWR for all 32 NFL teams — points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
nfl_win_probability	Turn an NFL spread + total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — or pass two teams to derive the spread.
nfl_ladder	The Ladder — every Kalshi strike vs our whole distribution (spreads, season wins, props) with the derived verdict: SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED.
nfl_prop_board	This week's NFL prop prices venue by venue — every Kalshi strike vs the book consensus, DraftKings/FanDuel lines, Novig/ProphetX, and where the best price for each side actually is.
nba_prop_board	Every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike (points, rebounds, assists, threes) beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same strike — the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, no model.
nba_game_board	Kalshi NBA moneyline, spread and total beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same line — the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only.
nba_injury_impact	Today's NBA absences from the official injury report, and for each absent star the teammates whose minutes and stats rose without him (with sample sizes), beside today's Kalshi prop prices.
ladder_arb	Ladder Arb Scanner — Kalshi college football + NFL spread/total ladders priced out of order on the same side of the same game: locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one) and crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them.
explain_game	Why our model prices one NFL game where it does — Kalshi's price and line, our win probability, the model's lean in points, each team's power rating and the QB gate.
explain_prop	Why one NFL player prop is a call — the YES/NO side and its Kalshi price, the tier, our projection against the threshold, and whether it is a published PLAY or held at WATCH.
explain_ladder	Why The Ladder reads one NFL strike ladder — a game's spread, a team's season win total or a player's prop — the way it does: which way our curve leans or how its shape differs from Kalshi's, where Kalshi's ladder centres beside our projection, and every strike with our number where we publish one.

NHL — free

Tool	What it does
nhl_edge	Goal Light — every NHL game and player contract priced against Kalshi, with the book consensus beside it and a 10,000-season simulation for the futures board.
track_record	Our graded record per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) plus the daily editorial call: W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era. WATCH calls are reported apart.
my_league	Your Sleeper league by username — each starter beside every Kalshi prop strike on him this week, with the best price per side, opponent, kickoff and OUT/QB-gate flags. Market data only.
start_sit	Two to four players side by side — the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat, read off his own strike ladder, plus his anytime-TD price. Market prices only; the call stays yours.
waiver_targets	Sleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at — filtered to players still available in your league when you give a username.

Fantasy draft desk — in season

Answering in season (free): player_outlook · explain_player · compare_players · sleepers_and_busts — the same names, now about this week: one player's Kalshi prop strikes, why the model prices them there, two to four players side by side, and the players the market over- and underprices.

Also answering in season (free): draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · adp_market_gaps — the week's market version of each: players ranked by the median Kalshi prices them at, the strikes where Kalshi and the book consensus are 5¢+ apart, and the props on your roster. Draft answers return with the 2027 board.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed. edge_alerts is the one hybrid: Pro keys get the feed in real time, and without a key the same feed arrives delayed 24h.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

npm install
npm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.