financial-scenario-planner

財務シナリオプランナー

複数シナリオの財務モデル構築、ストレステスト、前提条件の感度分析、確率加重による財務計画のためのフレームワークです。

シナリオ分析フレームワーク

3 シナリオモデル

SCENARIO PLANNING TEMPLATE:

                    BEAR CASE        BASE CASE        BULL CASE
                    (Pessimistic)    (Expected)       (Optimistic)
Probability:        20-25%           50-60%           20-25%

REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS:
  Growth rate:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  New customers:    [N]              [N]              [N]
  Churn rate:       [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  ARPU change:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Market size:      [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]

COST ASSUMPTIONS:
  COGS margin:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Headcount growth: [N]              [N]              [N]
  Salary inflation: [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Marketing spend:  [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Capex:            [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]

EXTERNAL FACTORS:
  Interest rates:   [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Inflation:        [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  FX rates:         [X ]             [X ]             [X ]
  Regulatory:       [Impact]         [Impact]         [Impact]

PROJECTED OUTCOMES:
  Revenue:          [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  EBITDA:           [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Net income:       [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Cash position:    [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Runway (months):  [N]              [N]              [N]

EXPECTED VALUE:
  E[Revenue] = P(bear) x Rev(bear) + P(base) x Rev(base) + P(bull) x Rev(bull)

シナリオのトリガーイベント

シナリオの要因	弱気シナリオのトリガー	基本前提	強気シナリオのトリガー
市場需要	景気後退、-15%	安定成長、+5%	市場拡大、+20%
競争	新規参入企業がシェアの 20% を獲得	競争状況は安定	競合企業が市場から撤退
規制	制限的な新規規制	現状維持	規制緩和／有利な政策
テクノロジー	技術革新により製品が時代遅れになる	段階的な改善	画期的な優位性
資金調達	次回の資金調達ラウンドを実施できない	想定条件で資金調達	需要が募集額を上回るラウンド
主要人材	重要なチームメンバーを失う	通常の人材定着率	主要な戦略人材を採用

感度分析

1 変数感度表

REVENUE SENSITIVITY TO PRICE CHANGE:

Price Change:     -20%    -10%    Base    +10%    +20%
Volume Impact:    +10%    +5%     Base    -3%     -8%
Revenue:          [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]
Gross Profit:     [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]
Net Income:       [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]

2 変数感度分析（トルネードチャートデータ）

TORNADO CHART DATA — NET INCOME SENSITIVITY:

Variable            | Low Value | High Value | Low Impact  | High Impact
Revenue growth      | 5%        | 25%        | -$500K      | +$800K
Customer churn      | 8%        | 2%         | -$400K      | +$300K
COGS margin         | 45%       | 35%        | -$350K      | +$350K
Headcount           | +15       | +5         | -$300K      | +$200K
Interest rates      | 7%        | 4%         | -$150K      | +$100K
FX rates            | -10%      | +5%        | -$120K      | +$60K

INTERPRETATION:
  - Revenue growth has the highest impact on outcomes
  - Focus risk mitigation on top 3 variables
  - Variables below $100K impact are noise

損益分岐点分析

BREAK-EVEN CALCULATOR:

FIXED COSTS (Monthly):
  Salaries:           $______
  Rent/facilities:    $______
  SaaS/tools:         $______
  Insurance:          $______
  Other fixed:        $______
  TOTAL FIXED:        $______

VARIABLE COSTS (per unit):
  COGS:               $______
  Commission:         $______
  Payment processing: $______
  Support cost:       $______
  TOTAL VARIABLE:     $______

PRICING:
  Average selling price: $______
  Contribution margin:   $______ (price - variable cost)
  Contribution %:        _____%

BREAK-EVEN:
  Units:  Fixed costs / Contribution margin = _____ units
  Revenue: Fixed costs / Contribution % = $______

MONTHS TO BREAK-EVEN:
  At current growth rate: _____ months
  At optimistic rate:     _____ months
  At pessimistic rate:    _____ months

モンテカルロシミュレーションの設計

シミュレーションフレームワーク

MONTE CARLO SETUP:

STEP 1: IDENTIFY VARIABLES
  List all uncertain inputs that affect the outcome.
  For each variable, define:
    - Distribution type (normal, uniform, triangular, lognormal)
    - Parameters (mean, std dev, min, max)

STEP 2: DEFINE DISTRIBUTIONS
  Revenue growth:   Normal(mean=15%, std=5%)
  Customer churn:   Triangular(min=2%, mode=5%, max=12%)
  COGS margin:      Uniform(min=30%, max=45%)
  Headcount growth: Discrete([5, 8, 10, 12, 15], probs=[0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1])

STEP 3: RUN SIMULATIONS
  Iterations: 10,000 (minimum for stable results)
  For each iteration:
    1. Sample random value from each distribution
    2. Calculate outcome (revenue, profit, cash flow)
    3. Store result

STEP 4: ANALYZE RESULTS
  Mean outcome:           $______
  Median outcome:         $______
  Standard deviation:     $______
  5th percentile (VaR):   $______ (worst 5% of outcomes)
  95th percentile:        $______ (best 5% of outcomes)
  Probability of loss:    _____%
  Probability of target:  _____%

STEP 5: INTERPRET
  "There is a 90% probability that net income will fall between
   $______ and $______, with an expected value of $______."

分布の選択ガイド

変数の種類	推奨される分布	パラメーター	使用する状況
成長率	正規分布	平均、標準偏差	不確実性が対称的な場合
市場規模	対数正規分布	平均、標準偏差	右に歪んでおり、負の値を取らない場合
プロジェクト費用	三角分布	最小値、最頻値、最大値	上限と下限を定めた専門家の見積もりがある場合
二値イベント	ベルヌーイ分布	確率	発生する／しないイベント（規制、取引など）の場合
イベント発生までの時間	指数分布	発生率	顧客の継続期間、解約までの時間の場合
件数	ポアソン分布	発生率	一定期間内のイベント数の場合

キャッシュフローのストレステスト

資金繰り期間計算ツール

CASH RUNWAY ANALYSIS:

Current cash:           $______
Monthly burn rate:      $______
Monthly revenue:        $______
Net monthly cash flow:  $______ (revenue - burn)

SCENARIO RUNWAYS:
  Current trajectory:   ______ months
  If revenue drops 20%: ______ months
  If revenue drops 50%: ______ months
  If revenue goes to 0: ______ months (pure burn runway)

TRIGGER POINTS:
  6-month runway remaining: Begin fundraise / cut costs
  3-month runway remaining: Emergency cost reduction
  1-month runway remaining: Wind-down planning

COST REDUCTION LEVERS (by impact):
  Lever                    | Monthly Savings | Feasibility
  Freeze hiring            | $______         | High
  Reduce marketing 50%     | $______         | Medium
  Renegotiate vendor terms  | $______         | Medium
  Reduce headcount 10%     | $______         | Low (last resort)
  Eliminate office space    | $______         | Medium

個人財務のストレステスト

PERSONAL FINANCIAL STRESS TEST:

INCOME SCENARIOS:
  Current income:          $______/month
  Reduced income (-20%):   $______/month
  Job loss (0 income):     $______/month
  Disability (partial):    $______/month

FIXED OBLIGATIONS:
  Housing (mortgage/rent): $______
  Insurance premiums:      $______
  Debt payments:           $______
  Utilities:               $______
  TOTAL FIXED:             $______

EMERGENCY RESERVES:
  Liquid savings:          $______
  Investment (accessible): $______
  Credit available:        $______
  TOTAL RESERVES:          $______

SURVIVAL METRICS:
  Months covered (fixed only):     ______
  Months covered (full spending):  ______
  Months if income drops 20%:      ______

  Target: 6+ months of full spending coverage

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS:
  "If [EVENT] happens, I can sustain for [N] months
   by cutting [EXPENSES] and drawing on [RESERVES]."

シナリオ計画のプロセス

ワークショップ形式

SCENARIO PLANNING WORKSHOP:

PHASE 1: IDENTIFY UNCERTAINTIES (30 min)
  - List all factors that could impact the plan
  - Rate each: Impact (1-5) x Uncertainty (1-5)
  - Select top 2 with highest combined score
  - These become the axes of your scenario matrix

PHASE 2: BUILD SCENARIOS (45 min)
  Using the 2x2 matrix:

            Factor A: Low          Factor A: High
  Factor B:
  High      Scenario 1:            Scenario 2:
            [Name and narrative]    [Name and narrative]

  Factor B:
  Low       Scenario 3:            Scenario 4:
            [Name and narrative]    [Name and narrative]

PHASE 3: MODEL FINANCIALS (60 min)
  For each scenario:
  - Revenue projection (12-36 months)
  - Cost structure changes
  - Cash flow impact
  - Key metrics (CAC, LTV, margins)

PHASE 4: DEVELOP STRATEGIES (45 min)
  For each scenario:
  - What would we do differently?
  - What early warning signals would we see?
  - What decisions should we make now?
  - What options should we preserve?

PHASE 5: ACTION PLAN (30 min)
  - "No regret" moves (good in all scenarios)
  - Contingency triggers and responses
  - Monitoring dashboard design
  - Review cadence (quarterly recommended)

レポートテンプレート

関係者向けシナリオ概要

FINANCIAL SCENARIO SUMMARY

Period: [Timeframe]
Prepared: [Date]
Author: [Name]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
  [2-3 sentences: key finding and recommended action]

SCENARIO OUTCOMES:
                    Bear        Base        Bull
  Revenue:          $____       $____       $____
  EBITDA:           $____       $____       $____
  Cash (end):       $____       $____       $____
  Probability:      ____%       ____%       ____%
  Expected Value:   $____ (probability-weighted)

KEY RISKS:
  1. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]
  2. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]
  3. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS:
  1. [No-regret move that's good in all scenarios]
  2. [Contingency to prepare now]
  3. [Decision to make by specific date]

MONITORING:
  KPI                  | Current | Trigger (Action Needed)
  Monthly revenue      | $____   | Below $____
  Cash runway          | ___ mo  | Below 6 months
  Customer churn       | ____%   | Above ____%

関連項目

• 財務
• リスク管理
• データサイエンス