aspirational-systems-iceberg

愿景系统冰山

此技能的作用

设计系统冰山的反转版本。它不再从一个不理想的事件出发，追问哪些更深层的模式、结构和心智模型造成了这一事件，而是从学生或教育者希望促成的可见事件出发，然后追问：哪些重复出现的模式能让这一事件成为常态？哪些结构和实物能维持这些模式？又需要培养或转变哪些心智模型？

这在课堂中尤其有用，因为它让系统思维转向可能性。学生会明白，更美好的未来不是靠愿望或口号就能实现的，而是需要具备相应条件：日常惯例、角色、空间、支持、信息流、激励机制、关系和信念，让期望发生的事件更有可能出现。

依据

系统意识中心发布了一份引导式冰山（愿景型）资源，从“我们想促成什么？”这一问题出发，探讨哪些模式、结构、实物、价值观、信念和思维转变能够支持这一愿景。此技能将这项实践工具改编用于课堂与课程设计，同时借鉴了 Senge 关于心智模型和学习型组织的研究，以及 Meadows 关于系统结构和杠杆点的研究。

输入格式

教师必须提供：

• 期望事件： 一个可见、可辨认的事件或结果。例如：“学生发现有人被排斥，并主动关心对方”或“我们的班级会运用反馈来改进作品，而不会感到羞耻。”
• 背景： 这一愿景适用的场景以及涉及的人员。

可选背景：

• 学生阶段： 年龄／年级。
• 当前情况： 目前通常会发生什么。
• 利益相关者： 受影响或需要参与的人员。
• 限制条件： 限制行动的因素。

提示词

You are facilitating an Aspirational Systems Iceberg. Start with the desired visible event and work downward to the deeper system that would make it more likely.

Inputs:
Desired event: {{desired_event}}
Context: {{context}}
Student level: {{student_level}}
Current reality: {{current_reality}}
Stakeholders: {{stakeholders}}
Constraints: {{constraints}}

Rules:
1. Make the desired event observable. If the aspiration is vague, translate it into visible evidence: what would someone see, hear, read, or experience?
2. Work downward from aspiration to conditions:
   - Event: What are we trying to grow? What visible evidence would show it is happening?
   - Patterns and behaviours: What repeated actions, habits, interactions, and trends would need to become normal?
   - Structures and artefacts: What routines, roles, spaces, tools, protocols, schedules, policies, resources, rituals, feedback loops, or artefacts would sustain those patterns?
   - Mental models: What beliefs, values, assumptions, identities, and definitions of success would need to be strengthened, questioned, or shifted?
3. Include current reality without letting it dominate. The purpose is design, not complaint.
4. Avoid magical thinking. Every aspiration must be connected to concrete structures and small experiments.
5. Preserve agency and responsibility. Do not imply students alone must fix institutional or systemic problems.
6. End with first safe experiments that the class or teacher can try within their real sphere of influence.

Return exactly:

## Aspirational Systems Iceberg: [Desired Event]

**Context:** [brief]
**Design stance:** We are identifying the conditions that could help this aspiration grow.

### 1. Desired Event
**What we want to see happen:** [observable event]
**How we would recognise it:**
- [Visible/heard evidence]
- [Student/community experience evidence]
- [Artefact/product/data evidence]

### 2. Patterns and Behaviours to Grow
- [Repeated behaviour/habit/interaction]
- [Trend over time]
- [Pattern of response when difficulty appears]

### 3. Structures and Artefacts to Create or Strengthen
- **Routines:** [repeatable practices]
- **Roles:** [who holds what responsibility]
- **Spaces/materials:** [physical/digital/environmental supports]
- **Protocols/tools:** [scripts, forms, prompts, checklists, dialogue moves]
- **Time and rhythms:** [when this happens]
- **Feedback loops:** [how the system notices whether it is growing]
- **Institutional supports:** [adult, policy, resource, community supports]

### 4. Mental Models to Cultivate or Shift
For each mental model:
- **Current model that may limit growth:** [belief/story]
- **Aspirational model to cultivate:** [belief/story]
- **What would make the new model credible:** [experience/evidence/practice]

### 5. First Safe Experiments
Suggest 3 small experiments:
1. **Experiment:** [small action]
   - **Why this tests the system:** [pattern/structure/mental model]
   - **Evidence to notice:** [what to watch]
   - **Risk/safety check:** [how to keep it low-harm]

### 6. Classroom Facilitation Sequence
- **Opening prompt:** [student-friendly]
- **Individual think time:** [what students write/draw]
- **Group mapping:** [how groups build the iceberg]
- **Gallery walk or discussion:** [how patterns across groups are noticed]
- **Action selection:** [how to choose one experiment]
- **Reflection:** [what to revisit later]

### Quality Gates
- [ ] Desired event is observable.
- [ ] Patterns are repeated behaviours, not one-off hopes.
- [ ] Structures are concrete enough to design.
- [ ] Mental models are examined with humility, not used to judge people.
- [ ] First experiments sit within real control or influence.
- [ ] Institutional responsibility is named where needed.

课堂应用示例

• 建设包容的班级文化：“一个通常感觉自己被忽视的学生，在老师没有提示的情况下受到邀请加入小组。”
• 重塑反馈文化：“学生运用批评意见改进作品，同时仍为自己的尝试感到自豪。”
• 规划学生自主行动：“学生提出一项改变校园生活的建议，成年人认真看待他们的理由。”
• 设计再生行动：“学校社区将当地溪流视为一个鲜活的系统，并意识到自己有责任守护它。”

常见陷阱

1. 从口号入手。“人人都能融入”还不是一个事件。应将其转化为可见的证据。
2. **只罗列价值观，不设计结构。**价值观很重要，但还需要日常惯例、实物、角色和反馈回路。
3. **忽略当前限制。**愿景导向不等于不切实际。
4. **把责任全推给学生。**也要指出成人和机构层面的结构。
5. **把心智模型当成海报。**新的心智模型要通过反复经历才能建立可信度，不能只靠写在墙上的文字。

已知限制

1. **产出的是设计假设，而非经过验证的方案。**在声称其有效之前，必须通过真实的课堂实验检验愿景冰山及其支撑结构。
2. **可能提出无法实现的结构。**某些已识别的结构可能超出教师或学生的掌控范围。在投入完整设计之前，需要教师判断其可行性并加以筛选。
3. **愿景含糊时效果会打折。**与“一个通常独自吃饭的学生，在没有老师提示的情况下受到同伴邀请加入小组”相比，“营造热情友好的班级文化”更难据此进行设计。此工具需要具体、可观察的期望事件才能发挥良好作用。
4. **不估算所需时间或能力。**此技能会指出需要哪些结构，但不会说明这些结构需要多久才能扎根、需要多少教职员工投入，或必须停止哪些工作才能腾出空间。

验证清单

• 愿景以可观察的事件表述。
• 至少列出五种模式／行为。
• 结构包括惯例、角色、产物、时间、反馈和支持。
• 心智模式的转变与能够让其变得可信的体验相配套。
• 第一个实验足够小，可以很快尝试。
• 这项活动可以与学生一起开展，而不仅限于成年人。