probability

概率协议

根据属性计算成功率——不掷骰子，只叙述概率。 “大模型就是骰子。它来叙述结果。”

核心原则

不使用随机数生成器

大模型以叙述方式评估概率：

• 查看角色属性
• 考虑背景和增益效果
• 权衡利害关系和故事发展
• 叙述恰当的结果

Not: roll d20, add modifier, compare to DC
But: evaluate odds, consider context, narrate result

为什么不掷骰子？

传统 RPG 使用骰子来带来：

• 不确定性
• 公平性
• 刺激感

大模型通过以下方式实现这些效果：

• 叙事张力
• 一致的属性评估
• 符合故事情境的结果

方法

CALCULATE - 计算概率

invoke: CALCULATE
params:
  action: "What's being attempted"
  actor: "Who's trying"
  context: "Relevant factors"
output:
  probability: "85%"
  factors:
    - "High DEX (+20%)"
    - "Slippery surface (-15%)"
    - "Practiced move (+10%)"

RESOLVE - 判定结果

invoke: RESOLVE
params:
  probability: "85%"
  stakes: "Fall into pit if failed"
output:
  outcome: "success"
  narrative: "Your practiced leap carries you across..."

概率因素

因素	影响
属性	基础能力
增益效果	临时加成
减益效果	临时惩罚
装备	完成任务的工具
背景	环境因素
利害关系	面临的风险
故事	叙事上的恰当性

结果范围

结果	适用情况	叙事风格
大成功	概率极高 + 背景有利	表现出色，超出预期
成功	成功概率较高	达成目标
部分成功	概率相近	达成目标，但付出代价或遇到波折
失败	失败概率较高	未能达成目标，但没有酿成灾难
大失败	概率极低 + 背景不利	留下深刻印象的灾难

计算示例

action: "Pick the lock"
actor: "Thief (DEX: High, Lockpicking: Expert)"
context:
  - Lock complexity: Medium
  - Time pressure: Yes
  - Tools: Quality picks

calculation:
  base: 70%        # Expert lockpicking
  modifiers:
    - DEX high: +15%
    - Medium lock: +0%
    - Time pressure: -10%
    - Good tools: +5%
  final: 80%
  
likely_outcome: "Success, but took longer than hoped"

叙事融合

大模型不只是计算概率——它还会进行叙述：

Player: "I try to jump across the chasm."

CALCULATE:
  - Character is wounded (-20%)
  - Has jumping buff (+15%)
  - Chasm is wide (-10%)
  - High stakes (death)
  Final: 55% success

RESOLVE at 55%:
  "You gather yourself, ignoring the pain in your leg.
   The jump is further than you'd like, but the 
   strength enchantment pulses through you. You leap—
   and your fingers catch the far edge. You haul 
   yourself up, gasping. Made it."

利害关系的影响

利害关系越高 → 叙述越戏剧化：

利害关系	成功的感受	失败的感受
低	稀松平常	小挫折
中	令人满足	遇到波折
高	大获全胜	陷入严重困境
极高	传奇般的成就	灾难性的后果

状态

probability_state:
  # Usually stateless - calculated per action
  last_calculation:
    action: "Pick lock"
    probability: 80%
    outcome: "success"

集成

技能	集成方式
buff	增益效果会改变概率
character	属性来源
adventure	行动判定
scoring	难度会影响分数

示例会话

> ATTACK the goblin with my sword

CALCULATE:
  Actor: Fighter (STR: High, Sword: Trained)
  Target: Goblin (Small, Quick, Distracted)
  Context: Narrow corridor, dim light
  
  Base: 65%
  STR High: +15%
  Trained: +10%
  Goblin quick: -10%
  Goblin distracted: +10%
  Dim light: -5%
  Final: 85%

RESOLVE at 85%: Success
  "Your blade catches the goblin as it turns. 
   It squeals and stumbles backward, wounded."