financial-scenario-planner

财务情景规划

用于构建多情景财务模型、对假设进行压力测试、开展敏感性分析，以及进行概率加权财务规划的框架。

情景分析框架

三情景模型

SCENARIO PLANNING TEMPLATE:

                    BEAR CASE        BASE CASE        BULL CASE
                    (Pessimistic)    (Expected)       (Optimistic)
Probability:        20-25%           50-60%           20-25%

REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS:
  Growth rate:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  New customers:    [N]              [N]              [N]
  Churn rate:       [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  ARPU change:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Market size:      [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]

COST ASSUMPTIONS:
  COGS margin:      [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Headcount growth: [N]              [N]              [N]
  Salary inflation: [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Marketing spend:  [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Capex:            [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]

EXTERNAL FACTORS:
  Interest rates:   [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  Inflation:        [X%]             [X%]             [X%]
  FX rates:         [X ]             [X ]             [X ]
  Regulatory:       [Impact]         [Impact]         [Impact]

PROJECTED OUTCOMES:
  Revenue:          [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  EBITDA:           [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Net income:       [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Cash position:    [$ ]             [$ ]             [$ ]
  Runway (months):  [N]              [N]              [N]

EXPECTED VALUE:
  E[Revenue] = P(bear) x Rev(bear) + P(base) x Rev(base) + P(bull) x Rev(bull)

情景触发事件

情景驱动因素	熊市触发条件	基本假设	牛市触发条件
市场需求	经济衰退，-15%	稳定增长，+5%	市场扩张，+20%
竞争	新进入者占据 20% 的市场份额	竞争格局稳定	竞争对手退出市场
监管	出台限制性新规	维持现状	放松监管／政策有利
技术	技术颠覆导致产品过时	渐进式改进	获得突破性优势
融资	无法完成下一轮融资	按预期条件融资	融资超额认购
关键人员	失去核心团队成员	人员留任情况正常	招聘关键战略人才

敏感性分析

单变量敏感性表

REVENUE SENSITIVITY TO PRICE CHANGE:

Price Change:     -20%    -10%    Base    +10%    +20%
Volume Impact:    +10%    +5%     Base    -3%     -8%
Revenue:          [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]
Gross Profit:     [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]
Net Income:       [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]    [$ ]

双变量敏感性（龙卷风图数据）

TORNADO CHART DATA — NET INCOME SENSITIVITY:

Variable            | Low Value | High Value | Low Impact  | High Impact
Revenue growth      | 5%        | 25%        | -$500K      | +$800K
Customer churn      | 8%        | 2%         | -$400K      | +$300K
COGS margin         | 45%       | 35%        | -$350K      | +$350K
Headcount           | +15       | +5         | -$300K      | +$200K
Interest rates      | 7%        | 4%         | -$150K      | +$100K
FX rates            | -10%      | +5%        | -$120K      | +$60K

INTERPRETATION:
  - Revenue growth has the highest impact on outcomes
  - Focus risk mitigation on top 3 variables
  - Variables below $100K impact are noise

盈亏平衡分析

BREAK-EVEN CALCULATOR:

FIXED COSTS (Monthly):
  Salaries:           $______
  Rent/facilities:    $______
  SaaS/tools:         $______
  Insurance:          $______
  Other fixed:        $______
  TOTAL FIXED:        $______

VARIABLE COSTS (per unit):
  COGS:               $______
  Commission:         $______
  Payment processing: $______
  Support cost:       $______
  TOTAL VARIABLE:     $______

PRICING:
  Average selling price: $______
  Contribution margin:   $______ (price - variable cost)
  Contribution %:        _____%

BREAK-EVEN:
  Units:  Fixed costs / Contribution margin = _____ units
  Revenue: Fixed costs / Contribution % = $______

MONTHS TO BREAK-EVEN:
  At current growth rate: _____ months
  At optimistic rate:     _____ months
  At pessimistic rate:    _____ months

蒙特卡洛模拟设计

模拟框架

MONTE CARLO SETUP:

STEP 1: IDENTIFY VARIABLES
  List all uncertain inputs that affect the outcome.
  For each variable, define:
    - Distribution type (normal, uniform, triangular, lognormal)
    - Parameters (mean, std dev, min, max)

STEP 2: DEFINE DISTRIBUTIONS
  Revenue growth:   Normal(mean=15%, std=5%)
  Customer churn:   Triangular(min=2%, mode=5%, max=12%)
  COGS margin:      Uniform(min=30%, max=45%)
  Headcount growth: Discrete([5, 8, 10, 12, 15], probs=[0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1])

STEP 3: RUN SIMULATIONS
  Iterations: 10,000 (minimum for stable results)
  For each iteration:
    1. Sample random value from each distribution
    2. Calculate outcome (revenue, profit, cash flow)
    3. Store result

STEP 4: ANALYZE RESULTS
  Mean outcome:           $______
  Median outcome:         $______
  Standard deviation:     $______
  5th percentile (VaR):   $______ (worst 5% of outcomes)
  95th percentile:        $______ (best 5% of outcomes)
  Probability of loss:    _____%
  Probability of target:  _____%

STEP 5: INTERPRET
  "There is a 90% probability that net income will fall between
   $______ and $______, with an expected value of $______."

分布选择指南

变量类型	推荐分布	参数	适用场景
增长率	正态分布	均值、标准差	不确定性呈对称分布
市场规模	对数正态分布	均值、标准差	右偏且不能为负
项目成本	三角分布	最小值、众数、最大值	根据专家估算值确定边界
二元事件	伯努利分布	概率	事件会／不会发生（如监管、交易）
事件发生时间	指数分布	速率	客户生命周期、流失时间
计数	泊松分布	速率	某个时段内的事件数量

现金流压力测试

现金跑道计算器

CASH RUNWAY ANALYSIS:

Current cash:           $______
Monthly burn rate:      $______
Monthly revenue:        $______
Net monthly cash flow:  $______ (revenue - burn)

SCENARIO RUNWAYS:
  Current trajectory:   ______ months
  If revenue drops 20%: ______ months
  If revenue drops 50%: ______ months
  If revenue goes to 0: ______ months (pure burn runway)

TRIGGER POINTS:
  6-month runway remaining: Begin fundraise / cut costs
  3-month runway remaining: Emergency cost reduction
  1-month runway remaining: Wind-down planning

COST REDUCTION LEVERS (by impact):
  Lever                    | Monthly Savings | Feasibility
  Freeze hiring            | $______         | High
  Reduce marketing 50%     | $______         | Medium
  Renegotiate vendor terms  | $______         | Medium
  Reduce headcount 10%     | $______         | Low (last resort)
  Eliminate office space    | $______         | Medium

个人财务压力测试

PERSONAL FINANCIAL STRESS TEST:

INCOME SCENARIOS:
  Current income:          $______/month
  Reduced income (-20%):   $______/month
  Job loss (0 income):     $______/month
  Disability (partial):    $______/month

FIXED OBLIGATIONS:
  Housing (mortgage/rent): $______
  Insurance premiums:      $______
  Debt payments:           $______
  Utilities:               $______
  TOTAL FIXED:             $______

EMERGENCY RESERVES:
  Liquid savings:          $______
  Investment (accessible): $______
  Credit available:        $______
  TOTAL RESERVES:          $______

SURVIVAL METRICS:
  Months covered (fixed only):     ______
  Months covered (full spending):  ______
  Months if income drops 20%:      ______

  Target: 6+ months of full spending coverage

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS:
  "If [EVENT] happens, I can sustain for [N] months
   by cutting [EXPENSES] and drawing on [RESERVES]."

情景规划流程

工作坊形式

SCENARIO PLANNING WORKSHOP:

PHASE 1: IDENTIFY UNCERTAINTIES (30 min)
  - List all factors that could impact the plan
  - Rate each: Impact (1-5) x Uncertainty (1-5)
  - Select top 2 with highest combined score
  - These become the axes of your scenario matrix

PHASE 2: BUILD SCENARIOS (45 min)
  Using the 2x2 matrix:

            Factor A: Low          Factor A: High
  Factor B:
  High      Scenario 1:            Scenario 2:
            [Name and narrative]    [Name and narrative]

  Factor B:
  Low       Scenario 3:            Scenario 4:
            [Name and narrative]    [Name and narrative]

PHASE 3: MODEL FINANCIALS (60 min)
  For each scenario:
  - Revenue projection (12-36 months)
  - Cost structure changes
  - Cash flow impact
  - Key metrics (CAC, LTV, margins)

PHASE 4: DEVELOP STRATEGIES (45 min)
  For each scenario:
  - What would we do differently?
  - What early warning signals would we see?
  - What decisions should we make now?
  - What options should we preserve?

PHASE 5: ACTION PLAN (30 min)
  - "No regret" moves (good in all scenarios)
  - Contingency triggers and responses
  - Monitoring dashboard design
  - Review cadence (quarterly recommended)

报告模板

面向利益相关者的情景摘要

FINANCIAL SCENARIO SUMMARY

Period: [Timeframe]
Prepared: [Date]
Author: [Name]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
  [2-3 sentences: key finding and recommended action]

SCENARIO OUTCOMES:
                    Bear        Base        Bull
  Revenue:          $____       $____       $____
  EBITDA:           $____       $____       $____
  Cash (end):       $____       $____       $____
  Probability:      ____%       ____%       ____%
  Expected Value:   $____ (probability-weighted)

KEY RISKS:
  1. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]
  2. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]
  3. [Risk] — Impact: $____ — Mitigation: [Action]

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS:
  1. [No-regret move that's good in all scenarios]
  2. [Contingency to prepare now]
  3. [Decision to make by specific date]

MONITORING:
  KPI                  | Current | Trigger (Action Needed)
  Monthly revenue      | $____   | Below $____
  Cash runway          | ___ mo  | Below 6 months
  Customer churn       | ____%   | Above ____%

另请参阅

• 财务
• 风险管理
• 数据科学