forecast-scenarios

预测情景建模

通过可变假设创建多个收入情景，为战略规划、董事会演示和风险管理提供支持。

适用场景

• 年度和季度规划
• 董事会会议准备
• 融资预测
• 风险评估和应急规划
• 评估战略举措

方法论基础

基于 McKinsey 情景规划和 FP&A 最佳实践，结合：

• 基准／乐观／悲观情景建模
• 敏感性分析（变量影响）
• 蒙特卡洛概率分布
• 基于驱动因素的预测

Claude 的工作与由你决定的事项

Claude 的工作	由你决定
构建情景框架	假设值
计算情景结果	选择用于规划的情景
识别关键敏感因素	风险承受水平
建模变量影响	战略响应
展示结果范围	最终预测承诺

此技能的功能

1. 情景定义 - 基准、上行、下行情景
2. 变量建模 - 测试假设变化的影响
3. 敏感性分析 - 哪些变量最重要
4. 概率加权 - 期望值计算
5. 行动规划 - 在每种情景下采取什么行动

使用方法

Model revenue scenarios for [Period]:

Current Status:
- YTD Revenue: $X
- Current Pipeline: $X
- Run Rate: $X/month

Key Variables to Model:
- Win rate: [Current: X%, Range: X-X%]
- Average deal size: [Current: $X, Range: $X-$X]
- Sales cycle: [Current: X days, Range: X-X]
- New pipeline creation: [Current: $X/month]
- Churn rate: [Current: X%]

Create best, likely, and worst case scenarios.

说明

步骤 1：定义情景框架

情景	定义	概率
最佳情景（乐观）	一切顺利	15-20%
最可能情景（基准）	符合现实的预期	50-60%
最差情景（悲观）	面临重大阻力	20-25%

步骤 2：识别关键驱动因素

按对收入的影响为变量排序：

驱动因素	影响	可控性
赢单率	高	中
销售管道规模	高	高
交易规模	中	低
销售周期	中	中
流失率	中	中
定价	低	高

步骤 3：设定变量范围

为每个驱动因素定义合理范围：

Win Rate:
- Best: 35% (team is hitting stride)
- Likely: 25% (current performance)
- Worst: 18% (market headwinds)

Pipeline:
- Best: $5M (strong marketing)
- Likely: $4M (normal cadence)
- Worst: $2.5M (budget cuts)

步骤 4：计算情景

收入公式（简化）：

Quarterly Revenue =
  (Pipeline × Win Rate) +
  (Expansion Revenue) -
  (Churn)

应用于每种情景：

Best Case:
$5M × 35% = $1.75M new + $200K expansion - $50K churn
= $1.9M

Likely Case:
$4M × 25% = $1M new + $150K expansion - $80K churn
= $1.07M

Worst Case:
$2.5M × 18% = $450K new + $100K expansion - $120K churn
= $430K

步骤 5：敏感性分析

测试：“如果 X 变化 10%，会怎样？”

变量	+10% 影响	-10% 影响	敏感度
赢单率	+$100K	-$100K	高
销售管道	+$90K	-$90K	高
交易规模	+$50K	-$50K	中
流失	-$30K	+$30K	中

步骤 6：计算期望值

Expected Revenue =
  (Best × Probability) +
  (Likely × Probability) +
  (Worst × Probability)

= ($1.9M × 20%) + ($1.07M × 55%) + ($430K × 25%)
= $380K + $589K + $108K
= $1.077M

示例

示例 1：季度预测情景

输入：

Model Q2 scenarios:

Current Status:
- Q1 Revenue: $850K
- Q2 Pipeline: $4.2M
- Monthly run rate: $280K

Variables:
- Win rate: Current 24%, Range 18-32%
- Avg deal: Current $45K, Range $38K-$55K
- New monthly pipeline: Current $800K, Range $500K-$1.2M
- Monthly churn: Current $25K, Range $15K-$40K
- Expansion: Current $50K/month, Range $30K-$80K

输出：

## Q2 Revenue Scenario Model

### Scenario Definitions

| Scenario | Probability | Description |
|----------|-------------|-------------|
| 🐂 Bull | 20% | Strong execution, market tailwinds |
| 📊 Base | 55% | Continue current trajectory |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | Market slowdown, execution challenges |

### Variable Assumptions

| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|
| Starting Pipeline | $4.2M | $4.2M | $4.2M |
| Win Rate | 18% | 24% | 32% |
| Avg Deal Size | $38K | $45K | $55K |
| New Pipeline/mo | $500K | $800K | $1.2M |
| Monthly Churn | $40K | $25K | $15K |
| Expansion/mo | $30K | $50K | $80K |

### Q2 Revenue Calculations

#### 🐂 Bull Case: $1.42M

起始销售管道收入： $4.2M × 32% = $1.34M

交易规模调整： $1.34M × ($55K/$45K) = $1.64M 有效值

新增销售管道（Q2）： $1.2M × 3 个月 × 32% × 50%（部分成交）= $576K

扩张： $80K × 3 = $240K

流失： -$15K × 3 = -$45K

乐观情景总计：$1.64M（现有）+ $576K（新增）+ $240K（扩张）- $45K（流失） 按 Q2 阶段加权：$1.42M

#### 📊 Base Case: $980K

起始销售管道收入： $4.2M × 24% = $1.01M

新增销售管道（部分成交）： $800K × 3 × 24% × 50% = $288K

扩张：$150K 流失：-$75K

基准情景总计：$1.01M × 0.9（时间调整）+ $150K - $75K = $980K

#### 🐻 Bear Case: $580K

起始销售管道收入： $4.2M × 18% = $756K × 0.85（交易延期） = $643K

新增销售管道：$500K × 3 × 18% × 40% = $108K 扩张：$90K 流失：-$120K

悲观情景总计：$580K

### Scenario Summary

| Scenario | Revenue | vs Q1 | Growth |
|----------|---------|-------|--------|
| 🐂 Bull | $1.42M | +$570K | +67% |
| 📊 Base | $980K | +$130K | +15% |
| 🐻 Bear | $580K | -$270K | -32% |

### Expected Value

E(收入) = ($1.42M × 0.20) + ($980K × 0.55) + ($580K × 0.25) = $284K + $539K + $145K = $968K

**Recommended Forecast: $950K - $1.0M**

### Sensitivity Analysis

| If This Changes... | Revenue Impact |
|--------------------|----------------|
| Win rate +5% | +$210K |
| Win rate -5% | -$210K |
| Pipeline +$500K | +$120K |
| Deal size +$5K | +$80K |
| Churn +$10K/mo | -$30K |

**Highest Sensitivity**: Win rate (focus on deal execution)

### Scenario Action Plans

**If Trending Bull:**
- Accelerate hiring plan
- Increase marketing spend
- Prepare for capacity constraints

**If Trending Base:**
- Stay the course
- Focus on execution
- Build pipeline for Q3

**If Trending Bear:**
- Tighten expense controls
- Extend runway calculations
- Double down on existing customers
- Consider discounting to close deals

示例 2：年度规划情景

输入：

Model 2026 annual scenarios for board:

2025 Results:
- Revenue: $4.2M
- Customers: 85
- ARR Growth: 45%
- NRR: 110%

2026 Planning Variables:
- New customer target: 40-80 new customers
- ACV range: $40K-$60K
- NRR range: 105%-120%
- Churn range: 5%-12%

输出：

## 2026 Annual Revenue Scenarios

### For Board Review

---

### Scenario Summary

| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|--------|------|------|------|
| New Customers | 40 | 60 | 80 |
| New ACV | $40K | $50K | $60K |
| New ARR | $1.6M | $3.0M | $4.8M |
| NRR | 105% | 112% | 120% |
| Existing Base | $4.41M | $4.70M | $5.04M |
| **Total ARR** | **$6.0M** | **$7.7M** | **$9.8M** |
| **Growth** | **43%** | **83%** | **133%** |

### Detailed Calculations

#### 🐻 Bear Case: $6.0M ARR (+43%)

**Assumptions:**
- Conservative new sales (40 customers)
- Lower ACV ($40K avg)
- NRR dips (105%)
- Higher churn (10%)

现有客户群： $4.2M × 105% NRR = $4.41M

新客户收入： 40 个客户 × $40K = $1.6M

总计：$6.0M

**When This Happens:**
- Market downturn
- Sales execution issues
- Product-market fit challenges
- Key competitor gains ground

---

#### 📊 Base Case: $7.7M ARR (+83%)

**Assumptions:**
- Target new sales (60 customers)
- Target ACV ($50K)
- Maintain NRR (112%)
- Normal churn (7%)

现有客户群： $4.2M × 112% NRR = $4.70M

新客户收入： 60 个客户 × $50K = $3.0M

总计：$7.7M

**This Is Likely If:**
- Execute at current pace
- Market conditions stable
- Product roadmap delivers
- Team retention healthy

---

#### 🐂 Bull Case: $9.8M ARR (+133%)

**Assumptions:**
- Exceed targets (80 customers)
- Premium ACV ($60K)
- Strong NRR (120%)
- Low churn (5%)

现有客户群： $4.2M × 120% NRR = $5.04M

新客户收入： 80 个客户 × $60K = $4.8M

总计：$9.8M

**Required For This:**
- Strong product releases
- Successful enterprise push
- Favorable market timing
- Key hires perform

---

### Expected Value & Recommendation

E(ARR) = ($6.0M × 0.20) + ($7.7M × 0.55) + ($9.8M × 0.25) = $1.2M + $4.24M + $2.45M = $7.89M

### Board Recommendation

**Target: $7.5M ARR** (+79% growth)

| Metric | Target | Confidence |
|--------|--------|------------|
| New Customers | 55-60 | Medium-High |
| New ARR | $2.75M | Medium |
| NRR | 110%+ | High |
| Total ARR | $7.5M | Medium |

### Key Risks & Mitigations

| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|--------|------------|
| Sales hiring delays | -$1M | Recruit pipeline now |
| Enterprise deals push | -$800K | Parallel SMB motion |
| Key customer churn | -$500K | CSM investment |
| Competitor pricing | -$600K | Value selling training |

### Monthly Checkpoints

| Month | Bear | Base | Bull |
|-------|------|------|------|
| Q1 End | $4.8M | $5.2M | $5.8M |
| Q2 End | $5.3M | $6.2M | $7.4M |
| Q3 End | $5.6M | $7.0M | $8.6M |
| Q4 End | $6.0M | $7.7M | $9.8M |

Track monthly and adjust Q3 if trending to Bear.

技能边界

此技能擅长的方面

• 构建情景框架
• 根据假设计算结果
• 识别关键敏感因素
• 展示各种可能性

此技能无法做到的方面

• 预测哪种情景会发生
• 了解你的具体业务动态
• 将黑天鹅事件纳入考量
• 替代对概率的专家判断

需要交由人工处理的情况

• 制定正式目标
• 董事会／投资者承诺
• 重大战略转型
• 需要领域专业知识的假设

迭代指南

后续提示词

• “达到基准情景需要多少赢单率？”
• “展示每种情景下的月度收入走势。”
• “如果失去最大客户，加入一个‘灾难性’情景。”
• “概率加权预测是多少？”

情景规划周期

1. 设定变量和范围
2. 计算情景
3. 识别早期预警信号
4. 定义行动触发点
5. 每月根据实际情况进行审查

检查清单和模板

年度规划模板

## [Year] Revenue Scenarios

### Scenarios
| Case | Revenue | Growth | Probability |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|
| Bull | | | 20% |
| Base | | | 55% |
| Bear | | | 25% |

### Key Assumptions
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|

### Sensitivity Analysis
| Variable | Impact per 10% |
|----------|----------------|

### Risk Register
| Risk | Scenario Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------------|------------|

参考资料

• McKinsey 情景规划指南
• FP&A 预测最佳实践
• SaaS 指标与财务建模
• CFO.com 收入预测

相关技能

• pipeline-forecasting - 为情景模型提供输入
• lead-scoring - 为销售管道假设提供输入
• account-health - NRR／客户流失输入

技能元数据

• 领域：RevOps
• 复杂度：高级
• 模式：centaur
• 见效时间：完整模型需 60-90 分钟
• 前置条件：历史数据、变量假设